Because America’s hold on Ukraine is at risk, now-

What risks Ukrainein American mid-term elections? Much.

Both because the approach of those elections has suddenly brought out unexpected defections, both on the right and on the left, from the front of American solidarity with Kiev. Both because it is an implacable rule of American politics that after the mid-term vote for Congress, there will be talk of race to the White House in 2024.

The opening of that other electoral campaign risks making certain fractures on Ukraine more visible.

This can exercise a free effect all on European alliesor at least on some of them who are already showing signs of restlessness, such as Germany.

Be clear, Ukraine is by no means an election campaign theme. Ten days after the vote, there are other concerns. Inflation, recession risks, immigration, crime. Foreign policy rarely plays a role in election campaigns. Nor if you vote for Congress. After all, the president who does foreign policy. Congress is only called into question when it comes to financing it, and will actually have the last word on aid to Ukraine. This is why the latest outbursts of Republicans must worry Kiev. Not only some iron Trumpians, loyal to their leader’s isolationist streak, but also a notable of the old Republican establishment, House Leader Kevin McCarthy, recently said that the war in Ukraine begins to cost the American taxpayer too much. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, immediately reprimanded it. Even a Trumpian like Mike Pompeo is in favor of helping the Ukrainian army to the bitter end. But anyway, the line does not make unanimity in the Republican field. And on November 8, Republicans are expected to regain a majority in at least one of the branches of Congress.

In the democratic field, an unfortunate incident happened when he came out an appeal made by about twenty parliamentarians from the far left of the partyin which Biden was essentially asked to indicate a endgame in Ukraine, to encourage negotiations, including by pressing on Zelensky. Beyond the details, for its tone that text was immediately interpreted as a break from the lines, a dissociation from the Biden line. The alarm returned because the petitioners rejected the appeal, explaining that they had drafted it in June, when the situation in Ukraine was very different. For now, party discipline has been rebuilt, but the signal remains.

In summary, what lesson should Zelenski draw from it? That Biden is not eternal, he knew. Now Kiev must begin to deal with an unpredictable political scenario.

As long as the Republicans just regain a majority in Congress, the votes for the next aid packages to Ukraine are likely to be found. Anyway Biden does not rule out submitting a maxi-maneuver of multi-year aid to Ukraine to the old Congress (the new one will take office in January). But then? When the candidates for the presidential nomination in the Republican camp come out, there may be Trump or some other isolationist like him, less in favor of prolonging support for the Ukrainians indefinitely.

The unpredictability of American politics will have its repercussions among other NATO allies. Those in Europe that have so far repressed their objections may come out of the closet as doubts about American leadership arise.

October 27, 2022, 15:17 – change October 27, 2022 | 16:54

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About Banner Leon

Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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