Below is the interview with Fabrizio Brasili, financial analyst, to whom we asked some questions on the current situation of the markets and in particular of Piazza Affari. Anyone wishing to contact Fabrizio Brasili can write to the email address: firstname.lastname@example.org.
The Ftse Mib has overcome the obstacle in the area of 22,800. Doors open to new climbs in the next sessions?
Last Friday the Ftse Mib also went beyond the strong resistances of the area 22,800 / 22,900, with hasty coverings even over 23,000 points.
These are levels to be confirmed with more consistent volumes starting from today’s session and with the weekly closings.
In any case, we believe that it is unconscious not to want to see the reality and the photograph of the general situation at all costs, even if only in Europe and in Italy in particular.
The next year, however, will be more complicated and negative than the current one, still artificially supported with few stocks in the index.
The “bison, ex-crazed tuna,” do not see that close, very close, there is the ravine or the net that awaits them!
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The wisest thing, even if it is often said to never go against the dominant trend, is to remain firm and absent from the market, until at least a return of the Ftse Mib on the lows of the last 12 months, set at 20,500 points.
The advice is to start then, only after breaking the psychological threshold of 20,000 points, with a temporary landing at 18,800 / 18,900 points, to accumulate in light stock picking, the securities and assets that we will suggest to our subscribers from time to time.
The step towards the 16,000 / 16,500 points of Ftse Mib is very short, even if it could lead us in the next year to these usual levels as a terminal target price.
Banco BPM jumped ahead last Friday, while it stopped just above the Bper Banca parity. What is your view on these two titles?
Both stocks are on our list and try to find a correct valuation price for a future exchange in M&A transactions, which by now will necessarily be postponed until after the formation of a new government.
Only after the end of the year will the games of the new banking risk begin, which will certainly involve Banco BPM and Bper Banca in the first half of next year.
As previously said, in this period we could reach the target price mentioned above, and even if, probably both Banco BPM and BPER Banca, will run a separate and contrarian race, in this case we will not wait for the achievement of this target, but we will both begin to collect slowly at the break of the 20,000 points of Ftse Mib towards 18,800 / 18,900 points.
What is your opinion on Azimut and FinecoBank and what information can you provide us for both?
Same music for the two themes of managed savings, except that there will be no M&A involvement to support them and make them splash from time to time.
We expect a healthy recovery from the lows, which are much closer for both stocks than the highs.
In short, Azimut and FinecoBank are to be evaluated for a healthy repositioning in the medium-long term, benefiting from a decent coupon remuneration, better for Azimut (7% / 8%) than for FinecoBank (3% / 4%).
The euro-dollar returned below 1.02 after approaching a key resistance. What to expect now?
Momentarily out of the very narrow dominant range between July and August placed between parity and 1.02, exactly between 0.9950 and 1.0250, the euro-dollar suddenly returned between 1.02, resistance that became support, and 1 , 04, with a rapid return just below 1.03.
The cross seems to move and stabilize momentarily between 1.02 and 1.03: it is better to leave it alone, even more so for retail.
In the next 12 months, in the event of persistent negativity in the equity and bond markets, the dollar could also reach 0.94 / 0.96 euros, strengthening against the euro, continuing its safe-haven function.
In the very unlikely event of continued strengthening of these markets, the dollar could weaken, again in the next 12 months, with a rise in the crossover up to 1.06 / 1.08.
In the medium to long term, the dollar will continue to depreciate, above all due to the continuous increase of the already huge public debt.