In the event of a victory by the right, the main question is whether the balance of power will allow Meloni to require its partners not to deviate from the Atlantic alignment
P.n reasoning about the coalitions facing each other we must remember that they are the product of the existing electoral law. For which, instead of the latinorum – the Rosatellum – a (more elegant) Anglicism could be used: the stack lawthe law of piling up, of piling up. The law obliges, on both sides, to put together everything and its opposite: Putin’s enemies and Putin’s friends, the sincere supporters of Mario Draghi’s politics and those for whom Draghi the longa manus of capital international financial. Furthermore, given the impossibility of separate voting, the law obliges the poor voter who puts a cross on Putin’s enemy to vote for his friends too, the one who votes for the candidate who supports Draghi’s policy to vote for those who also vote for him. hates. In addition, as a final touch – and this is sure to suit all party secretariats – it allows crowds of yes men (or yes women) to enter parliament not because they are chosen by the voters but because it was so decided by who manipulate lists through the game of multiple nominations. As Massimo Teodori (
) and Roberto Gressi (
of 5 August), with a similar law, the next legislature is likely to end the previous one: governments that, in their composition, completely disregard the sides that presented themselves in the elections.
For now, however, we need to think about what is there. And what is represented by the two main coalitions facing each other. With some unknowns about what’s left out of those coalitions: how many percentage points below ten percent will the 5 stars drop? Will Matteo Renzi be able to cross the 3 percent barrier? Important things to understand what political balance will be achieved in the next Parliament.
Let’s start with the coalition favored by the polls. Towed by an undoubtedly capable and charismatic leader like Giorgia Meloni. Having given up the role of the opponent (for example, with the no in principle to the implementing measures of the NRP), Meloni is already thinking and acting now as prime minister in pectore: as such he is rightly concerned with governability. He prepared the transition well: siding with the Draghi government and with NATO on Ukraine, he suddenly reassured the western side and obtained a bonus that he can now spend. It is singular that while she loyally supported the government over Ukraine and against Putin, her current coalition partners, despite being part of the Draghi majority, behaved like Mr. Tentenna: they obviously could not afford to be as straightforward as Meloni.
Put aside (or so it is hoped) certain reckless demagogic promises, Meloni now has to work on two fronts: curb the exuberant partners who specialize in promising the moon to voters and reassuring Brussels. Will it succeed with the common program that the center-right is drawing up? Meloni says the PNRR needs to be renegotiated. And if the European partners are not willing to renegotiate it, what do we do? Are we giving up on huge European funds? One cannot believe that Meloni is willing to pay – and make us pay – such a price. It has been read that you would have in mind a tour in the European capitals and in Brussels. It would be very appropriate for you to do this. It is necessary, for our good, for Europe to be reassured about the behavior of the future Italian government. Guido Crosetto is right: very hard times await us. Once the fires and fury of the electoral campaign are over, it is necessary that the responsible political forces present in Parliament, whoever wins (if anyone wins), try to collaborate to face the emergency: a country in pieces does not suit anyone. But this concerns the post-election. What remains open, in this historical moment, the main question: in the event of a victory by the right, will the balance of power within the coalition be such as to allow Meloni to impose on his partners, on the crucial terrain of foreign policy, that there are no deviations from the Atlantic alignment?
We come to the center-left coalition. The impression that the now famous Fratoianni and Bonelli, anti-Dragons, anti-NATO, anti-gasifiers, anti-everything, in that coalition play the part of the woman of the screen: they serve to hide other and more important divisions.
The left currents of the Democratic Party (in harmony with the CGIL) have suffered obtorto neck – and a great credit to Enrico Letta – the policy of Draghi but they will be ready to discard if they have the chance. There are groups within the Democratic Party (the same ones who are today the inconsolable widows of the alliance with the 5 Stars) that are wary of the market and that, for example, do not have too different positions on the competition from Matteo Salvini. They let Salvini and Meloni (plus the far left) pass for the enemies of competition (taxis, beach concessions) but, for sure, competitive markets are not their priority. If, say, due to a serious defeat of the Democratic Party, these currents managed to get rid of Letta, what would become of the PD-Calenda alliance?
Let us also remember that if a defeat would shift the internal equilibrium of the Democratic Party to the left, its position on foreign policy would perhaps change. Not at all sure that the aforementioned currents, despite being silent at the moment due to party discipline, think differently from Salvini on sending weapons to Ukraine. More generally, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic Party really has within it, as its leaders claim, a compact and convinced majority of supporters of Draghi’s policy and willing to continue on the same path.
Perhaps the quality of our democracy would improve if, at the very least, the next Parliament did an electoral law, majority (as the writer would prefer) or proportional, without tricks, tricks and straitjackets. With the transparency that is completely lacking in the electoral law now in force. To help voters understand a little more who and what they are voting for.
August 6, 2022 (change August 6, 2022 | 21:29)
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