We are now on the rise in the curve of Covid-19 cases in Italy. Five weeks of relative calm, with a descent, first strong and then increasingly weak. It is a figure that the Gimbe Foundation records at a national level, with an increase of 1.5% in the last seven days. But it is also sensitive at the level of the provinces, in two thirds of which the incidence is increasing, as emerges from the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani of the National Research Council (Cnr). Moreover, a similar dynamic is recorded in other large countries on the Continent, such as Great Britain and Germany at its maximum number.
The factors under observation
According to the experts, on the one hand there is a decrease in everyone’s attention in adopting precautions, on the other hand the gradually increasing spread of the Omicron 2 variant, which is known to be more contagious than the predecessor. In the meantime, the long-established deadlines for reopening are approaching and the government is working to trace the road-map of the easing of anti-Covid measures in view of the end of the state of emergency. Among the points the use of masks at school and indoors, and the gradualness with which to overcome the Green pass. In this regard, the possibility of leaving only the obligation of the basic Green pass for hotels and transport, also linked to the needs of tourism, is being evaluated. It is not excluded, but no decisions have yet been made, that already after March 31st we can return to 100% capacity in the stadiums.
Ricciardi: we risk ruining our summer in the EU
In general, with the easing of the anti Covid measures that are taking place in various European countries, “while we were starting to have a good summer again, we run the risk, at this rate, of ruining it while instead it could have been managed better “. This is the opinion of Walter Ricciardi, professor of General and Applied Hygiene at the Faculty of Medicine and Surgery of the Catholic University, and scientific advisor to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza. In question are called various decisions not coordinated at the European level, of the countries. Like Austria, which has lifted various obligations, «France which suspends the Green pass and we are accused of health dictatorship to keep it. It’s exhausting. Yet it is clear that if circulation is opened, for example by suspending all measures, as Britain has done, there is again an increase in cases “, he concluded, stressing that the Agency for Disease Control, the Ecdc should share “not only data but also actions”.
Increase in cases and hospitalizations in the UK
Indeed, in the United Kingdom there are signs of a resumption of infections and hospitalizations from Covid. According to the latest government data, on a weekly basis there was an increase in cases of 46%, for a total of 346,059, and 12% of hospitalizations, which reached 8,950. But in the scenario of a country that has abandoned the restrictions and passed from a pandemic to an endemic regime, there are very positive indications regarding mortality. According to an analysis by the Financial Times, the combination of high levels of immunity, made possible by the extensive vaccination and booster campaign, and the reduced severity of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, have made Covid less lethal than influenza due to the overwhelming majority of people in England. According to the data, in fact, it emerges that out of 100 thousand Omicron infections there are 35 deaths, while with the same cases of flu the deaths are 40.
Germany, an absolute record with 262,754 infections
It is an absolute record of infections in Germany, where 262,752 cases have been recorded in the last 24 hours, a number never reached before. Yesterday the Robert Koch Institute reported 210,673 infections. The incidence over seven days has meanwhile risen to 1,388 infections per 100 thousand inhabitants, while last Thursday it stood at 1,174 cases. The deaths in the last 24 are 259 (last Thursday they were 267). The hospitalization rate of patients with Covid over seven days stands at 6.74 per 100 thousand inhabitants. However, the figure also includes people hospitalized for other reasons who later discovered they had the disease. According to bioinformatician Lars Kaderali, a member of the government’s board of experts, Germany is experiencing a sixth wave of infections, due to the spread of the Omicron BA.2 variant and the relaxation of anti-contagion measures. However, Kaderali supports the decision to abandon most of the measures on March 20. “The numbers of infections are increasing throughout the country, but the situation in hospitals is still not dramatic.”