Crude oil is cheaper, but the six in front of the stations hold tight. What’s next?

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Crude oil is significantly cheaper on Friday, November 26. Not only that, the discount applies to the full range of assets, including the stock and currency markets. This is the investors’ reaction to the information about the detection of a new variant of the coronavirus. B.1.1.529 may be more infectious and more resistant to current vaccines.

Coronavirus outbreakB.1.1.529 – what do we know about the new coronavirus variant?

Crude oil is cheaper, fuel prices continue to rise

Today’s reduction in quotations of the raw material is spectacular, but the downward trend has been visible for several days. Currently, both European Brent and US WTI crude oil are trading well below $ 80 per barrel.

Brent crude oil prices.Brent crude oil prices. source:

WTI crude oil prices.WTI crude oil prices. source:

Meanwhile, fuel prices at Polish stations, after breaking the level of PLN 6 per liter (the national average) a few weeks ago, do not think to fall. We even have a slight increase again. Last week (from Thursday to Thursday), the average price of 95-liter petrol was PLN 6.04 per liter and increased by PLN 0.02 week to week, according to analysts from BM Reflex. In the case of diesel, the increase was one grosz, and for one liter you have to pay an average of PLN 6.05. The price of autogas increased the most, by PLN 0.05 per liter, to PLN 3.39 / l.

The prime minister has announced cuts in VAT on fuel, but the market may be faster

This may change, because wholesale fuels have been cheaper for several days, and experts predict that this trend may deepen. “If the crude oil market remains at a lower level, then in the first half of December we can see fuel price cuts at domestic stations, i.e. earlier than the announced cuts under the anti-inflation shield” – writes BM Reflex in its weekly commentary (all on .pl).

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These cuts were announced by the prime minister on Thursday. From December 20 (for five months), the excise tax on fuels is to be reduced to the lowest level allowed by the EU. In the case of diesel, there is no traffic here, because the levy is already at this level. In addition, the rules related to the calculation of the excise duty level also take into account the currency exchange rate, and here the zloty, which has been weak for weeks, will not help. Mateusz Morawiecki also announced the suspension of the tax on retail sales for petrol stations and the emission charge – all this also for five months.

Prime Minister Morawiecki presents the anti-inflation packageThe government will lower the prices of fuel, energy and gas. There will be food subsidies

According to the prime minister, thanks to these decisions, at the beginning of next year, the price of a liter of fuel would be 20 or even 28-30 groszes lower. However, experts suspect that the positive impact of the anti-inflationary shield for consumers will be lower. “In our opinion, after the proposed solutions enter into force, prices could drop to an average of PLN 0.20 per liter of gasoline, to PLN 0.15 per liter of diesel. our refineries in the new year “, write Urszula Cieślak and Rafał Zywert from BM Reflex.

Oil reserves released, market disappointed

Some turmoil in the market was also caused by the news this week that some of the major economies will release some of their oil reserves to contain inflationary pressures. It was announced first by the United States, followed by Japan, India, Great Britain, South Korea and China. Immediately after this information, the oil did not cheaper at all – the market was disappointed by the small scale of interventions in Asian countries. In addition, these steps may lead OPEC to revise its mining policy.

Petuniabukta, Spitsbergen.  Footprints in the swampy tundra.  It is difficult to say what period they come from, but these are years.Leftover. An arctic resource rush could have happened here. These are her remains

In addition, the drop in prices caused by information about a new, dangerous variant of the coronavirus in a situation when Europe is struggling with another wave of coronavirus, clearly increases the risk of OPEC + changing its strategy for the next few months.

In Poland, for retail prices at stations, one more issue is important: exchange rates. Polish refineries settle crude oil purchases in dollars. The weaker the zloty (and the more expensive the dollar), the more they have to pay for the raw material for fuel production.

About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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