For the first time in a long time, the zloty started the day with a strengthening against the main currencies. And not only him. This morning the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira are also strengthening. It seems that the second half of the week will be marked by a corrective strengthening of all these currencies. A possible upward correction on EUR / USD will be helpful.
At 09:50 the EUR / PLN exchange rate, which yesterday attacked the level of PLN 4.7278 and was the highest in 12 years, fell by 3.1 to PLN 4.6717. Other currencies fell on a similar scale. The CHF / PLN exchange rate fell by PLN 0.10 to PLN 4.4480, and the USD / PLN exchange rate by 2.3 groszy to PLN 4.1590.
EUR / PLN daily chart
The zloty in its morning strengthening was no exception
The Hungarian forint, which was breaking records for weakness the day before, was also gaining, and even the Turkish lira, which was panically sold out on Monday. This may signal that investors have decided to take profits on these three recently losing currencies. And this regardless of what will happen today in the currency markets and what macroeconomic data has come out. And there will be a lot of the latter. Especially from the US, where the day before Thanksgiving, there will be a real flood of macroeconomic publications. Investors incl. learn about reports on US GDP, Americans’ income and spending, durable goods orders, new home sales, and the University of Michigan index.
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Today there will also be data from Poland
At 2:00 pm the NBP will publish a report on money supply in October (forecast: 8.4% y / y). However, it will not evoke major emotions on the market, just as in the morning such emotions were not aroused by the interview of the NBP president Adam Glapiński for Interia.
The increasing probability of an upward rebound in the EUR / USD pair, which will be supported by the Thursday holiday in the US, speaks in favor of the zloty, signaling the possibility of extending the correction to the next days. The dollar appreciation was one of the most important factors behind the recent zloty depreciation in the last two weeks.
On the basis of fundamental factors, although the latest macroeconomic data from Poland positively surprised, nothing has changed
Still against the zloty are high negative interest rates in Poland, delayed response of the MPC to soaring inflation, the risk of limiting the inflow of European funds, deteriorating balance of payments, not transparent policy of the National Bank of Poland and the growing likelihood of faster interest rate increases by the Fed. All this suggests that the zloty will remain weak until the end of the year, and today’s strengthening is only a correction, not the beginning of a trend change.