Less than two months after the opening of the polls, when there is still a week left for the official start of the election campaign, the contest for the presidency of the Brazil is undoubtedly one sprint to two between the president in office, Jair Bolsonaroand the former head of state and leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva. While until a few months ago the advantage shown by Lula in the polls was seen almost as irrecoverable, for some weeks a tendency towards recovery of Bolsonaro seems to consolidate more and more. All the numerous surveys, even if carried out on very small samples, on limited territories of the country and over the phone, show Lula an advantage between 6% and 16%, but the average distance tends to constantly reduce, increasingly removing the possibility of a victory. left-wing leader in the first round on 2 October. There is no story in any of the scenarios for the third wheel, the leader of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), Ciro Gomescredited between 9% and 7% percent and with declining prospects.
For the professor of international politics at the University of Rio de Janeiro (Uerj) and commentator of the Tv Globe, Paulo Velascoheard from Ilfattoquotidiano.itthe recovery of Bolsonaro is a scenario foreseen due to the enormous resources deployed by the government for the payment of benefits to rain in favor of large sections of the population. “Bolsonaro’s recent growth has a lot to do with the approved benefits: the 40% increase inAuxilio Brasil (similar to the basic income), the rich fuel bonus to taxi and truck drivers. Not to mention being able to negotiate a cut of excise duties to reduce gasoline costs. These are measures that the voter checks in his newspaper as soon as he leaves home and have a huge impact in electoral terms. This is the advantage of those in power and can manage the public machine to orient resources and be able to benefit from them electorally, ”says Velasco.
The bonuses to support the income of families bent by the increase ininflation, which have been growing for over two years, are paid starting today, and it is easy to expect a further increase in electoral approval when citizens have the money in hand. “The support guaranteed to him by the Parliament, which approved the law, was also fundamental in this – says Velasco – reform of the Constitution and allowed the allocation of extraordinary extra-budgetary resources to be able to pay “. The law in question, approved on July 1st, is the subject of investigation by the Court of Auditors. The standard recognizes it state of emergency until the end of 2022. A necessary condition for the government to be able to finance the anti-inflation benefits, with a total value of over 41 billion real (approximately € 7.4 billion). Without this step, the government would in fact violate both the tax liability lawwhich imposes a ceiling on public spending, both electoral law, which prohibits the approval of economic benefits to rain in the election year. It is precisely on the strategy adopted by the government to increase expenses that the accounting judiciary wants to see clearly. The impact of the investigation, however, is negligible from an electoral point of view.
And the fact that the enormous resources allocated to debt “will have the effect of a tax bomb on the accounts of the country that will explode in the hands of Bolsonaro or Lula depending on who wins the elections ”. In the meantime, according to Velasco, there are also other elements that will favor Bolsonaro’s recovery in the polls. “Unemployment is decreasing and this too is something that citizens live intensely on a daily basis. The economy is also showing a recovery. If the good economic news continues to arrive, many citizens may decide they don’t want to change direction. Especially those many people who have been influenced by economic frustrations and who have been pushed by them to evaluate a vote of change for Lula who has left behind an image of well-being for the population ”. According to Veloso, the current scenario was largely foreseen by Lula and those responsible for his electoral campaign. “The former president already counted on having reached the highest point of appreciation and was already considering losing votes, towards the center or towards Bolsonaro.” At the moment, preferences seem to be transferring towards Bolsonaro, an element that also consolidates the trend towards extreme polarization of the electorate ahead of the elections.