From today we publish a test-game for our readers to understand which political family the Italian electorate belongs to (in our case, the small and unscientific sample of those who want to participate in our experiment carried out with society Cluster 17 directed by Jean-Yves Dommages who worked out the following scheme for us). The goal, says Dommages, is “to understand how the electoral demand is structured. What do the voters expect? What are the most important issues for them? What are the logics of their electoral choices? “.
And so Cluster 17 questions the main ones divisions that cross the company, taking a census of the positions on the most relevant and divisive topics, the so-called cleaveges (which have such relevance in political studies from Rokkan onwards). To achieve this Cluster17 has identified 30 issues representing the 30 questions of the test. The answers to these questions will make it possible to identify the groups that within them share a system of values and political opinions. Hence the choices that will be produced on 25 September. In short, explains Dommages, “clusters correspond to the great political-ideological segments of the electorate. They represent the state of the electoral demand and allow us to better understand who is voting for whom and for what reasons “.
From a survey carried out between 3 and 5 September – the results of which we cannot publish due to the legal prohibition – it is clear, however, that the polled electorate is divided into three large cleaveges, fundamental: the issue of migrants, the European Union and the strength of authority, the most discriminating issue; the knot of redistribution of wealth; a third division is linked to the influence of Christianity and its values. For example, the majority of the electorate says they are in favor of the question “Systematically block the boats of migrants even by force” and against it represent 46%. At the same time, 41% say they are in favor of exiting the euro, against 59%. Such a result must be combined with responses on economic and social issues that show 84% in favor of reducing legal working hours, 61% for a tax on corporate profits and 66% for taxing inheritances over € 1 million. .
Research has identified 16 groups (cluster) whose detailed breakdown can be found here (https://cluster17.com/clusters-italiani/).
As you can see, the classic left-center-right division was not chosen, but a more articulated definition even then the vote will be redistributed on the parties to a large extent also thanks to that old representation.
THE PROGRESSIVES-RADICALS (6% of the population according to the research) with a strong anti-capitalism and radical progressivism on all social issues. They divide their vote between the far left, the PD and the M5S.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS (7% of the population) belong to the country’s cultural elites, progressive on social issues, love moderation, and are concerned about the rise of populism. They are attracted to the left and the center.
SOCIAL CHRISTIANS (5% of the population) Elderly and wealthy, they value solidarity and mutual respect, they share many values with the moderate left. They are the pillars of the Italian center-left.
THE ANTI-SYSTEMS (7% of the population) They are often young and disillusioned, they belong to the middle and working classes. Progressive on social issues, they are very hostile to the “caste”. They mostly vote for the M5S.
THE MODERATES (8% of the population) They live mainly in the center and south of the country and are often artisans, traders, business leaders or members of qualified professions. Of Catholic culture, they adopt moderate positions on the great issues that divide Italy. They tend to disperse among the moderate forces of the center, left and right.
THE SOUTHERNALISTS (6% of the population) Rather elderly and belong to the working classes. They are oriented towards a social Catholicism that pushes them to be on the side of the weakest. Anti-system tendencies are also in favor of social redistribution. They have been a base of the M5S, but sometimes they vote for PD or FI.
THE NATIONAL-POPULARS (5% of the population) A fairly young group, made up of many blue-collar and white-collar workers. Rather progressive on social issues and very attentive to workers’ rights and economic redistribution. They are also anti-system, in favor of exiting the euro and a strong presidential regime. They voted a lot for the M5S, but now they are also attracted to FdI.
THE PRO-BUSINESS (7% of the population) They tend to be young people, often students, entrepreneurs or employees of the private sector. They believe in private values and are hostile to bureaucracy and “too much state”. They would prefer a strong president, able to manage “the Italian company” as an entrepreneur. Today they are a little more likely to split between center-left and center-right.
I ANYWHERE (11% of the population) They are often young, have few qualifications and belong to the working and lower middle classes. They have little interest in politics and very often abstain. Politically, when they vote, they tend to vote for the M5S and, even more so, for the right.
MODERATE CONSERVATORS (5% of the population) Almost always believers, they are also often elderly, they have rarely attended university and belong to the middle classes of the peninsula. They deplore the arrival of migrants, the questioning of the Christian family and the trivialization of homosexuality. They constitute the conservative wing of the center-right and could identify with the positions on the values of FdI.
THE ANTI-WELFARE (5% of the population) Wealthy and elderly classes of the North, they are a component of the country’s economic elites. Group very attached to the “value of work” and very opposed to social aid. Their preferences are clearly right. but they are sensitive to the speeches of Action and Italia Viva.
THE TRADITIONALISTS (5% of the population) They are wealthy, often elderly and often reside in the North. The identity of Italy is confused with the values of Christianity. In economics, they are quite liberal and anti-welfare. But it is also a group hostile to any major upheaval, which cares about the stability of the political system and the maintenance of Italy in the EU. After voting in large numbers for the League in 2018, they seem to be attracted to FdI this year.
EUROSCEPTICS (7% of the population) This is a fairly female group, which includes many blue-collar and low-skilled employees. They are very attached to Christianity. This is the group that is most opposed to adoption by homosexual couples. They are also very hostile to immigration and the presence of foreigners. 94% want to leave the euro. He will vote for the center-right and above all for the Lega and FdI.
THE NORDISTS (6% of the population) Nordists are mainly blue-collar and white-collar workers with modest incomes. They are also characterized by a general lack of faith. They are radically hostile to migrants. They also want order and authority. Mostly Lega voted. Now they point to FdI.
THE AUTHORITIES (5% of the population) Often women, this group includes many artisans, small shopkeepers, small owners, but also employees. Very present in the North and Center, they mainly belong to the middle classes over the age of 50. What characterizes them most is a very strong order request. It is likely that this year they will split between the Carroccio and FdI.
THE IDENTITIES (6% of the population) These are mostly men, generally quite elderly, with a low level of education but with an above average income. Very tied to the identity of Italy, which for them can only be Christian. They are one of the more conservative groups, therefore much less anti-system. Their votes go to the right and, in particular, to the Lega and FdI.