The so-called ‘third Pole’ formed by Action by Carlo Calenda and Italia Viva by Matteo Renzi could change the balance of many single-member colleges. “This is supported by the new simulation on single-member colleges of the Rosatellum published today by YouTrend in collaboration with Cattaneo Zanetto & Co .., according to which this alliance “brings very interesting news on the possible outcome of the elections of 25 September”.
– HOW DECISIVE WILL THE BREAK BETWEEN THE CENTER LEFT AND THIRD POLE BE? – In the Chamber, the simulation says that there are 14 single-member constituencies where today the advantage of the center-right over the center-left is lower than the percentage of which the third pole is accredited and are concentrated mainly in large cities (Rome, Milan, Turin and Genoa) and in Tuscany. In these colleges, the split between the center-left and the Calenda-Renzi ticket “would bring water to the center-right mill”. In the Senate, where the single-member constituencies are larger, the situation is less fluid and there are only 5 constituencies where the third pole would be decisive: in Rome, Tuscany and Romagna.
– WHAT IF THE THIRD POLE ARRIVES 10% BY REMOVING VOTES ON THE RIGHT? – Estimates show that the center-right seems favored for winning the majority of the colleges. The current situation sees 114 colleges “with a clear trend in favor of the center-right in the House and 57 in the Senate”, but up to 14 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate could be contestable again if the Calenda-Renzi ticket grows up to 10% of the consensus by subtracting 4 points to the parties led by Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi. Above all, several colleges in the South would return in the balance, as well as in the hinterlands of large cities.
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