Tuesday morning did not bring any major changes on the Polish currency market. The euro exchange rate remained close to the lowest levels since September. On the other hand, the Swiss franc weakened visibly, as it paired with the euro has already managed to make up for the losses at the end of the year.
At 9:59 the euro exchange rate was at the level of PLN 4.5387, ie almost half a penny higher than the day before. The previous two weeks were favorable for the zloty, which has already recovered most of its autumn losses. Since Christmas Eve, the euro exchange rate has decreased by nearly PLN 0.10, falling to the lowest levels since September.
In the opinion of analysts, the rebound in the euro-zloty pair was mainly due to the growing expectations of interest rate increases in Poland. After months of burying its head in the sand, the MPC finally decided to face the highest price inflation in 21 years, starting a cycle of significant interest rate hikes in the fall.
At the beginning of January, the MPC made the fourth increase in loan costs in a row and announced further moves in the coming months. A 50 bp rate hike is widely expected. in February. The market consensus assumes that by the end of 2022 Wibor 3M will exceed the level of 4%. Polish treasury bonds are also trading close to this level.
There has been a lot going on in the franc-euro pair in recent days. Today in the morning the EUR / CHF exchange rate reached the level of over 1.05 against less than 1.04 observed a week ago. Quite dynamic weakening of the franc against the euro took place after several months of almost continuous appreciation of the Helvetic currency.
However, this was enough for the Swiss franc to drop to PLN 4.32 on the Polish market, which is the lowest level in two months. Since the November summit, the CHF / PLN exchange rate has already dropped by PLN 0.20 after it set a new all-time record (PLN 4.5220).
The Olympic calm reigns in the dollar market. The EUR / USD exchange rate has been fluctuating in a narrow range of 1.1180-1.1380 since the beginning of December. With the zloty gaining against the euro, this translated into a decline in the dollar below the level of PLN 4. The American currency is therefore the cheapest in two months.