From Kosovo to Libya, up to Taiwan: the cascading effect of the war in Ukraine that can open new crises and destabilize (also) the EU and NATO

From the Kosovo at the Libyafrom Taiwan until the parallel wars for Petroleum, gas And grain. The cascading effect of the Russian invasion ofUkraine it engulfs more and more sensitive areas of the world with each passing day. What the decision of Vladimir Putin to unleash a conflict with neighbors could not be considered only a regional affair it was clear from the outset: to justify the armed attack, the Kremlin immediately pointed the finger at Bornin the never concealed attempt, together with the Chinese “friends”, of redrawing the map of world powerin search of a new multipolar structure that would put an end to the season of the great hegemonic power (gli United States) started after the fall of theSoviet Union. This strategy, today, has resulted in a awakening of small and large crises which risk hitting the so-called NATO-EU bloc hard and transforming February 24, 2022, the day on which the Moscow tanks laid their tracks on Ukrainian soil, into a new turning point in the history of world geopolitics.

Wheat and gas, weapons in the Moscow holster
In over five months of war, the issues that most of all have engaged the chancelleries and the European institutions are certainly the Russian gas supplies and the blockade, in addition to the destruction, of the Ukrainian wheat. On the one hand Brussels and members of the Borneven if the latter in a non-compact way, they tried to weaken the Russian firepower by hitting Moscow with sanctions heavier and heavier. The Federation, in response, has tried to offset its losses by opening new channels of international trade, especially with China, the only major power that has offered support to Russia. Thus, while the European chancelleries were and are still looking for alternative ways to Russian gas in view of the winter, Moscow has secured new extra-EU contracts and has begun to cut off supplies to the Union, in an attempt to destabilize European countries. Without forgetting the Petroleum: With prices skyrocketing, not just because of the war, many world leaders have also had to revise their international agendas and alliances. This is how, for example, Joe Biden he first re-established relations with Venezuela of the president Nicolas Madurodisliked Washingtonand then flew in Saudi Arabia for a face to face with Mohammad bin Salmanhe who the CIA indicates how the instigator of the Khashoggi murder on which Biden himself had promised zero tolerance. The same goes for Emmanuel Macron which, after the controversy over the Legion of honor conferred in December 2020 to the Egyptian dictator, Abdel Fattah al-Sisiwelcomed with all honors to theElisha the crown prince of Riyadh.

Different, at least in its epilogue, is the question concerning the grain what consequences it could have on Europe and the United States, but only for a long time. The lack of food in wheat-dependent countries of Kiev could have unleashed new mass migrations towards the richer states, forcing the NATO-EU bloc to face a new emergency. But on this the Putin and Zelensky emissaries have found an agreement, thanks also to the mediation of Turkey And United Nations. So much so that a few hours ago the news came that the first cargo loaded with grain has sailed from the port of Odessa directed towards the Lebanonone of the countries most affected by the food crisis following the Russian invasion.

Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan and the risk of escalation with China
The United States is playing the Ukrainian game, with its consequences globally, on two fronts. The Russian one, where the only progress after months of glacial silence was recorded with the call between the Russian Foreign Minister, Serghej Lavrovand the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and especially China, the main competitor on a global level and the first country interested in accelerating the end of the global hegemony of the stars and stripes. The last act, in chronological order, is the trip of the speaker of the Chamber, Nancy Pelosito Taiwan. A choice that crosses the red line drawn by Beijing, that is the interference in relations between the island with independence ambitions and the great Chinese power which, instead, claims full authority over it. For Xi Jinpinga visit from the DEM would represent one serious provocation and a violation of the One China principle that the United States itself has espoused and promises that such an act would not remain without consequences. The spokesman for the foreign minister, Zhao Lijianin fact, he declared: “We would like to warn the US again that China is waiting and that the People’s Liberation Army will not stand by and watch. China will certainly take decisive and strong countermeasures in defense of sovereignty and territorial integrity ”. Thus the American ‘provocation’ risks transforming the latent war with Beijing into an open confrontation which, in addition to representing a security risk, would provoke a economic and commercial earthquake globally.

On Kosovo Peskov speaks of “escalation”
But there is another latent war over in Ukrainian reach. The last European war before, in fact, the one that began in Volodymyr Zelensky’s country: the Kosovo. Moscow had been criticized by Belgrade last May, when to justify the desire to annex the Donbass he had compared the situation of the eastern territories of Ukraine to that of the small country nestled between Serbia And Albania. A ‘sacrifice’ in the name of the new war in the eyes of the president Aleksandar Vučić. But the new protests of the Serbian minority over the nationalist government’s decision Pristina to impose a ban on Serbian identity cards and car plates, in favor of Kosovar documents, has allowed Moscow to intervene again on the issue, this time openly alongside Belgrade. And in tones that are anything but relaxing: “We believe that the countries that have recognized Kosovo and have become its guarantors must exert all their influence to warn the Kosovo authorities not to adopt reckless measures that can lead toescalation – said the spokesman of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov – We ask that all rights of Serbs be respected ”.

Brusselsfor its part, has no intention of seeing a new front of confrontation open up at the gates of the EU, especially if this involves a country, Serbia, which is at the most advanced level among the Western Balkan states in the path of accession to the Union. The High Representative for Foreign Policy of the European Union, Josep Borrellin fact, he recalled that he “welcomed Kosovo’s decision to move the measures (on the ban on the use of Serbian documents and license plates, ed) on September 1st. I expect all roadblocks to be removed immediately “, she wrote on Twitter stressing that” open issues should be addressed through dialogue facilitated by the EU and attention “should focus” on global normalization relations between Kosovo and Serbia, essential for their integration paths in the Union ”.

The Libyan front
Then there are other scenarios that involve the countries of the EU-NATO bloc and in which Russia is trying to exert its influence in this global chess game. One, which very closely affects theItaly, is the Libyan one. It is no secret that Moscow has supported militias linked to the general Haftarleader of the Cyrenaica which he tried to defenestrate, marching on Tripolithe premier of the Government of National Accord recognized by the United Nations and the European Union, Fayez al-Sarraj. After the failure of the military coup, Russia continued to support the East by offering, while denying any connection, the mercenaries of the private militia Wagner close to the Kremlin. Those fighters, now also employed in Ukraine against Zelensky’s forces, are still present in the North African country and are ready to take action at any moment. Especially now that the country, after a fragile peace gathered around the figure of the transition premier ahead of the elections, Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibehreturned to a situation of uncertainty due to the threats made to the head of the Tripoli government by the aspiring president Fathi Bashagha. In a historically transit country for great migrations along the Mediterranean route and in which a world dispute has already opened to stipulate new energy agreements in view of greater stability, the Russia factor could upset the plans of European countries, Italy in the first place.

Twitter: @GianniRosini

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About Banner Leon

Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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