“Higher than expected GDP growth in Q3 2021 and data revisions mean that the Polish economy is currently about 3.5% above the pre-pandemic level. The quarterly growth by 2.1% was higher than forecasted in September Global Economic Outlook increase by 1.3% QoQ At the same time, the revised readings for Q1 and Q2 added 0.6 pp to this year’s GDP growth, so we expect Poland’s GDP to grow by 6.4% instead of 5.7%. ” – wrote in the Fitch Global Economic Outlook – December 2021, published on Wednesday.
At the same time, analysts indicated that aggressive monetary policy tightening should lower the pace of economic growth in 2022 to 4.3% (instead of 4.5% forecasted earlier).
“In 2023, we expect economic growth at the level of 3.5 percent (compared to 3.8 percent previously),” we read.
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For comparison, the recent OECD forecast spoke of GDP growth of 5.3 percent. in 2021, and next year by 5.2 percent.
Inflation above the NBP target
The authors of the report expect that in the first months of 2022, inflation in Poland will peak at 8%.
“As the GDP gap closes quickly, which should reach a positive level in 2022, the inflationary pressure grows. CPI in October increased to 6.8%, raising our inflation forecast for the end of 2021 to 7.8 percent. (from 4.8% forecasted earlier). We expect inflation to peak at 8%. in early 2022 and will moderate for the rest of the year, however, it will remain above the NBP’s inflation target“- it was written.
This would mean that inflation in December will be only slightly higher than in November, when it amounted to 7.7%. – as recently reported by the Central Statistical Office in the so-called quick respect.
The report shows that Fitch economists expect CPI inflation at the end of 2022 to be 4.0 percent.
The OECD forecast of average annual inflation – i.e. not December to December as in Fitch’s forecast – is 4.8%. in the current year, and 6.2 percent. next year.