According to experts’ calculations, without a significant increase in immigration from abroad, companies in Germany will have a much smaller number of employees at their disposal in 2035.
Only immigration at the level of approx. 400 thousand. people per year, it would be able to compensate for the shortages of employees resulting from demographic reasons – reports the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). However, according to scientists, it is unlikely, as immigration from EU countries is decreasing. Moreover, it turns out that with the greater inflow of labor force, its outflow also increases.
The IAB predicts immigration of 100,000 a year. Due to the growing number of elderly people in the society, it is expected that by 2035 the number of employees will decrease from the current 47.4 million by 7.2 million.
However, with the inflow of 100 thousand. migrants per year and thanks to a renewed increase in employment among women and seniors, the decline in workers would be limited to 3 million. 6.1 million would be missing by 2060.
To mitigate the effects of labor shortages, there is a need to increase education efforts, write the IAB researchers.
In the longer term, the resulting higher productivity of the workforce could help mitigate the negative effects. The Skilled Worker Immigration Act, which entered into force in 2020, is also “a step in the right direction, but is likely to be insufficient.”
The parties of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP agreed during the coalition negotiations on the formation of the new government that they wanted to “make this law more practical”. In addition, a point system is to be introduced in Germany to attract foreign skilled workers. Well-integrated refugees who are able to support themselves should be able to switch to legally secure residence status.
(RTR / jar), Polish editorial team of Deutsche Welle