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Since few days mathematical models show for the beginning of November a first attempt by the Atlantic currents to put an end to the anticyclonic blockade that has persisted in Italy for over two weeks. In reality it would not be a real change in circulation but only of the lowering of the latitude of the disturbed flow that could involve larger portions of Western Europe including part of our Peninsula.
This leads us to have some caution in speaking of the return of the rain, however the signal given by the European model cannot be ignored. So let’s see what we are talking about: after a weekend characterized by a massive presence in Italy ofsub tropical anticyclonethe beginning of the week would see the gradual deepening of a depression on the UK due to a pulse of polar sea air directed towards the European North Atlantic. This depression in addition to lead strong winds and autumn conditions on the British Isles could push the area of East African high pressure gradually exposing Italy to the unstable flow. According to the reference model the day of the prologue could be right that of All Saints with an increase in clouds in the North and the arrival of some first rain. Rains that then over the following days could also involve a part of the Center and finally of the South. Difficult at the moment imagine that a disturbance associated with such a northern depression could succeed defeat an area of high pressure so robust in our latitudes. Before the current baric field collapses, repeated attacks from the Atlantic would be necessary and this would require a more radical change of circulation that for now is not seen. But we will keep an eye on the whole situation promptly informing you of all the news, always follow us