There is now only another quarter left until the end of 2022 which is proving to be a difficult year for the equity markets.
Ftse Mib: sharp decline since the beginning of 2022. Moncler loses even more
Even Piazza Affari does not escape the negativity that has been dominating the scene since mid-February, just think that the Ftse Mib to date shows a decline of about 25% compared to the end of 2021.
There is no shortage of blue chips that have been performing better than the reference index since the beginning of the year, while among those that instead show more relative weakness we also find Moncler.
The stock from the beginning of 2022 shows a negative balance of about 34%, despite the positive indications of various analysts.
Moncler: Equita SIM expectations on 3rd quarter turnover
Among these we also find those of Equita SIM which continue to focus on Moncler without delay.
In recent days, the experts have already turned their attention to the new quarterly season that will start in the next few weeks at Piazza Affari.
Moncler, in particular, will lift the veil on third quarter revenue figures on October 26th.
Equita SIM estimates a reading of € 616 million, of which € 508 million for the Moncler brand, with retail of € 330 million and wholesale of € 178 million.
In retail in particular, experts estimate an increase of about 13% year on year, or + 30% on the pre-covid from + 21% in the second quarter, supported by an acceleration in Europe, driven by tourism but also by strong local demand, and an improvement in China, albeit still partially impacted by the restrictions.
On the contrary, in the wholesale sector, analysts estimate a growth of 3% on an annual basis, or + 6% on the pre-covid from + 56% in the second quarter.
The slowdown is explained by the anomalous delivery times in the second quarter, the temporary closure of Heinan in China and the conversion of some etailers to econcessions.
Of the 616 million euros of revenues, Equita SIM estimates 107 million euros for the Stone Island brand, up by 7% on an annual basis, but slowing compared to the second quarter, given the greater seasonality of wholesale, which is affected by the transition to direct distribution in Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom.
Moncler: further acceleration expected in the 4th quarter
These expectations are perfectly compatible with Equita SIM and consensus estimates for 2022, taking into account for Stone Island, the greater seasonality of retail in the fourth quarter, which will benefit from direct distribution on Korea / UK / Japan.
For Moncler, on the other hand, the prospect of acceleration in the fourth quarter must be taken into account, as anticipated by the optimistic declarations of CEO Ruffini on the start of the season, supported by greater seasonality of domestic consumption and by the numerous initiatives that have just started to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the brand.
Pending the official data of the group, Equita SIM analysts have made a slight adjustment to the 2022-2024 estimates, with a 1% increase for the forecasts on turnover, while those on profit remain unchanged.
Moncler among the favorites of Equita SIM: here are the reasons
Moncler remains one of Equita SIM’s favorite stocks in the luxury sector, thanks to the quality of the business, the growth prospects driven by specific factors and therefore less linked to the sector context, and finally to the attractive valuations.
The bullish view on Moncler has been confirmed, which deserves a “buy” recommendation for the Milanese SIM, with a target price of 60.5 euros, a value that offers an upside potential of over 40% compared to the current stock prices.