No, it is not a threat. It is a warning. The meaning, however, is the same. Rating agencies do their job. They are there to certify how reliable the bonds of a state that is borrowing money are. This is the nature of public debt, especially since individual European governments cannot print money. Words, indeed letters, undoubtedly have weight here, intertwined with expectations and sometimes with political evaluations. In short, one enters the field of judgments or prejudices. Moody’s, a private company founded in New York in 1909, has no plans for now to change the value of Italy. He takes some time and tries to figure out what’s going to happen. Everything, they say, depends on the PNRR. The recovery and resilience plan must not be deeply touched and the promised reforms must be completed. If this does not happen, another downgrade arrives. Italy is not in good shape at all. It is classified as Baa3 and going down another step means sinking to the junk level. This means that investors are not trusting and there would be stellar interest to get someone to buy. It is the road to failure. It must be said that the future government has no reason not to reform. They absolutely do not clash with electoral promises and then it must be said that the decline in our reliability comes from afar. If anything, there is a need to accelerate. However, there is no need to look for alibis.
However, there is a discussion to be made. If someone, inside and out, hopes for a financial disaster, he cannot help but deal with the consequences. The failure of an economy like the Italian one, which has a significant weight in the world, would open a black hole of an impressive size. The others also end up in it, attracted by a force of financial gravity that would not spare even Germany and France. It is a vortex that would mark the destinies of all, with reflections that would unhinge all global balances. It is no coincidence that Moody’s also issues a warning to the governments of the European Union. In the unfortunate case of a downgrade, Italy certainly cannot be left bankrupt. The trouble is, this is a fragile hope. Unfortunately, Europe is struggling to give answers to too big problems. The energy crisis is exposing its cracks and so far Scholz and Macron are not proving to be the standard bearers of the European dream. The disappointment is great and the policies of Berlin and Paris are more and more like a divestiture every day. The impression is that in the face of the emergency, the heaviest states are moving to save themselves. This is a very bad sign. Then what Moody’s is saying needs to be read even more in depth. If Italy fails, Europe implodes like a house of cards.