This year they reach 167.1 billion, with a ten-year increase of 26.3% nominal and 10.3% real, net of inflation. And precisely inflation, which now dominates the macroeconomic scenario after a substantial absence, raises some not insignificant unknowns on the prospects just outlined by Nadef, which for the next three years foresees a reduction of 4.2 billion (-2.5%) in the absolute value of this expense item.
Decisions on the program
Many of the “minus” signs that accompany the Nadef forecasts in the expenditure tables are actually explained by the fact that the document is limited to the trend “with legislation in force”, and leaves the decisions on the program as inevitable to the next government.
For example, the downward curve of the salaries of civil servants originates from there. After a 2022 characterized by the renewal of contracts (only the school will be missing) and therefore by the hump of arrears, the “compensation of employees” in the PA would fall by 1.2% in three years. But such a parable has to contend with a new contractual round (those just signed or under negotiation concern 2019/21) and with the need raised by the NRP for the “administrative strengthening” of a public administration impoverished by a decade of hardship. These too are highlighted by the recent history of public accounts: between 2012 and 2022 the total public wages remained stable in real terms (-0.1%) and saw their weight on GDP drop from 10.6% to 9%. , 9%. With a new three-year stagnation it would reach 8.7%.
The “current legislation” draws a similar line, due to similar reasons, for health expenditure, which however grew by 20.9% (+ 6.1% real) compared to 2012. pensions and ‘other current expenses’ often linked to anti-crisis aid.
All these dynamics are in fact destined to be modified by the next measures, because in addition to the renewal of the commitment against expensive bills, it will perhaps be complicated not to foresee at least the start of the financing of the contractual renewals of public employees in times of galloping inflation. But they are essential to calculate a falling deficit of 3.4% of GDP.