Industry in the pandemic only declined for three months, and it was fastest of all industries to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The latest data from the Central Statistical Office show that the economic flywheel is turning slower and slower, but much faster than economists’ expectations.
- The highest increase in production in October was recorded in the energy and heating industry. Year on year, the dynamics was almost 41%.
- The industry grew by as much as 7.8%, which is much higher than the forecasts of economists
- The automotive industry has fallen to fourth place in the production hierarchy in Poland
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Industrial production increased by 7.8 percent in October. Every year – GUS reported on Monday. This is the slowest annual growth since February this year, but the data is very good. Average analysts’ forecasts indicated an increase of 5.3%. rdr, so expectations were much worse than reality.
The data is in constant prices, so do not take into account price increases. If you eliminate the influence of seasonal factors, the production in October was higher by 9.8 percent. and 2 percent higher than in September – the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported.
See also: The EU industry started, but Germany stayed in the starting blocks. Our southern neighbors have even stepped back
The industry grew the most energy and heating. The dynamics here was 40.6 percent. yythanks to which this sector jumped to the second place in the hierarchy of Polish industry with a share of 8.1 percent. in production. Behind the food industry, which grew by 5.1 percent. y / y and was 14.9 percent. participation in industrial production.
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As energy use is growing, it is a good sign for the economy as a whole. In the period from January to October this year. sold production of industry was 14.9 percent. higher compared to the same period last year, when a decrease by 2.7% was recorded. – GUS reported.
Automotive getting lower
The condition of the industry indirectly indicates the relations in foreign trade, which then translate into GDP dynamics. Exports have to be very strong recently to make up for the increase in more expensive imports by the prices of energy resources. Unfortunately, one of the key export industries is in decline.
A decline in sold industrial production, compared to October last year, occurred in 9 sections, including in the motor vehicle industry. This is the second key area of Polish industry before the pandemic reduced production by 19.5 percent. yy, which fell from the podium and is now second to the food, energy and metal products industry. The latter has grown by as much as 13 percent. yy.
The chemicals and chemical products sector still had a very high sales dynamics in the top 10 of the Polish industry, which grew by as much as 21.9 percent. yy.
The problems of the automotive industry include a 3.1% decrease in the production of electrical devices in the industry, which also includes the production of batteries for electric cars. And in Poland, the largest factories in Europe were built, which not so long ago increased our growth rate. Now it’s the other way around.
According to preliminary data, in October this year, compared to October last year, an increase in sold production (in constant prices, ie without taking into account the price increase) was recorded in 25 (out of 34) industrial sectors.
– We expect production to increase by 6 percent. in the fourth quarter – this is a weaker result than in previous months. The reason for the weakening is the shortage of materials and raw materials. The CSO survey shows that more and more companies report shortage of raw materials as a barrier to business development. The biggest problems occur in the automotive sector and among electronics manufacturers (no microchips) and in the machine industry, commented analysts from the Polish Economic Institute.
– However, the scale of the weakening of Polish industry will be smaller than in other European Union countries. Despite the worse results of economic surveys, it is a great support for Polish companies stable domestic demand. Also, large purchase plans in Poland are better assessed against the background of the region or some Western European countries. The export industries should also be doing quite well. Large diversification of Polish industry means weaker impact of sectoral automotive bottlenecks. Exporters will also benefit from strong consumer demand in Germany. Such a picture is confirmed by the economic situation surveys – entrepreneurs surveyed in the MIK survey still positively assess the number of new orders, although the recent results indicate a slight slowdown – they added.