It was four legislatures, since the results of some elections in Asturias did not offer a clear alternative to the bloc of the right. At that time, the newly formed Forum took over the regional government with 16 seats compared to 15 for the PSOE, competing with Javier Fernández for the first time. Fernández won the vote, but the constituency system left him behind in deputies, and Foro ruled for a few months without approving his first budget, which meant an electoral boost and the PSOE’s return to Suárez de la Riva’s presidential palace. Was.
Since then, the collapse of both the Forum and the PP, especially in the case prior to 2015, has always been far from changing the complexion of the autonomous government in Asturias. In 2012, with Mercedes Fernández, the PP remained on 10 deputies, and in 2015 the seats were 11, repeating with him. With Teresa Mallada in 2019, the PP returned to an electoral corpus of 10 seats, representing seven political formations in parliament and four of which exceeded 10% support in the polls (PSOE, with 35), 3% ; PP itself, with 17.5%; Ciudadanos, with 14% and Podemos, with 11%).
Everything indicates, and this is reflected in the Gad3 poll for EL COMERCIO that was published yesterday in this newspaper, that the vote will again be concentrated in the lower forces in the elections to be held on May 28. Ciudadanos have, in practice, disappeared, going from 14% of the vote in 2019 to about 1.3%. It lost 13 points, almost equal – though not a direct transfer – to those won by the PP, which now has 31.9% of the vote.
Vox, on the other hand, emerges with close to 10% of the votes, which puts it in an environment of 4 deputies, while neither Forum nor Podemos fully sink despite experiencing internal crises, which are still kicking. The poll still gives one deputy to Foro and two to Podemos. In short, the two blocks, left and right, are very similar, and the campaign may be a touchstone for some to consolidate the meager advantage they have (1.3 points higher in the block on the left than in the block on the right). adds up) . to the right) or others turn to the position.
All this is a reflection, but also a symptom, that during the last four years things have not gone as well as they should have. The Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, for some, or mismanagement in the regional government, for others, have led more than half of parishioners to positively consider, as reflected in the survey, the option of changing the government, without This means that the 50.8% of those polled who support this option are all betting that it is an executive from the center and right-wing bloc that will take over from Barbon. In fact, no less than 27% of PSOE voters would support the change, as do 36% of Podemo and 30% of IU. On the other hand, logically the support is massive. In 2019, 86% of PP voters would view the change as positive, and 89% of Foro and 94% of Vox would argue for Diego Canga’s team to be an appealing ‘useful vote’.
Greater business rejection
Putting things this way, the Gad3 survey for EL COMERCIO, the first installment of which was published yesterday, shows a remarkable willingness for change in regional government management. On average, 50.8% of those surveyed would consider the change of government positive, but the fact that in practice they are slightly more than half does not mean that the other half are satisfied. In fact, there are 27.9% of respondents who believe that a change of government in Asturias would be negative, while 10.7% consider it neutral and almost the same, 10.6%, do not define themselves.
By sex, by age group, by educational level, by employment status and by municipality of residence, the results are fairly homogeneous, with some relevant peaks, but far from even when the results are analyzed by vote. Each respondent in the May 2019 elections.
Let’s go in parts. There are more men than women who are committed to change. 54% of them and 48% of them would, while 26% of them and 30% of them would see it as negative.
This is where the results are more homogeneous across age ranges and studies, perhaps highlighting that latecomers between the ages of 30 and 44 are those who are least likely to bet on a change of government.
Where the greater discomfort is felt is in certain labor sectors. By far, it is the self-employed and businesspeople who advocate most vociferously for change in management. Up to 59% would support the disruptive relay, while only 17% viewed it negatively. 42 points of difference that have a clear meaning, especially when both the PSOE and the Bloc on the Right usually refer to entrepreneurs as the locomotive of the region.
Interestingly, while private sector workers and the unemployed agree on the disapproval data, the opinion is more neutral among students and those doing unpaid domestic work.
Finally, it is significant that the people of Gijón and Oviedo, despite being municipalities with clearly differentiated historical consequences, practically reflected their disapproval and support for the Barbone government. Both still account for more than 50% of criticism of his management, and only one in four citizens in Asturias’ two main cities would view it negatively if Barbón turned from president to leader of the opposition.
Management for Civil Servants
Of those polled, 10.6% were unsure of the need for government change, with more clarity on whether the sector has improved. Only 1.3% take refuge in the lack of response, while 53.2% believe Asturias is worse off than it was four years ago; 21.9% say it remains the same, and 23.6% believe it has improved, less than those who view the change of government as negative.
They say things are the color of the glasses of what one sees, and in this case it is clear. There are only more respondents who believe that Asturias has improved, among socialist voters of May 2019 and among public administration activists. In the first case, 43% of socialists believe that the sector has improved after four years of government of the Barbón team, but they are only 9 points higher than those socialists who affirm or accept the deterioration of Asturias, 34%. and 21% were settled on ‘everything stays the same’.
The results of the former Socialist electorate were almost re-released by workers of the Public Administration. For him, the management of PSOE has also improved another point in the field. 44% of them support it, while 33% think otherwise. And for their part, former UI voters are evenly split between those who see improvement and those who think it has gotten worse. And till there. The rest of the subgroups have a markedly negative opinion, apart from the opposition parties, the group of businessmen and self-employed workers, 61% of whom say the sector has become worse and only 11% support the management. exposes again. Barbon’s executive.
The situation by age groups is, to say the least, curious. So far, those under the age of 30 are the ones who see Asturias’ development best. Those who see it as improving (40%) are practically tied to those who think it has worsened (41%), while opinions of the sector’s progress in other age groups are deteriorating almost linearly. But very suddenly the age group just above 30 years. However, when it comes to betting on a change of government, those under 30 equal and even outdo the rest of the groups. Something or the other is going on among the youth of the state.
Regardless of whether the sector has improved or deteriorated, Asturias’ concerns focus on the loss of employment, industrial development, taxation, health and the population in Asturias, in that order, issues that concern older people. Focus on the needs and more dependent citizens and the status of pastoralists and farmers. They are little concerned about the future of the tourism sector, the environment or the political model of the region.
