elected on USA They are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5th.but before both Democratic Party as republican party They have to hold primaries.
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Under normal circumstances, it is guaranteed that the candidate will Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The two sides have already butted heads in 2020, following the Democratic victory. Today, they are favorites in internal elections within their respective parties.
But currently trump card77 years old, He faces six criminal and civil justice cases involving charges of fraud, defamation, election interference, mishandling of classified documents and conspiring to subvert the election.
Most judicial proceedings can begin before the November presidential election.
Two of the cases stem from elections he lost Biden, a failure he was unaware of when he claimed he was the victim of fraud. According to the judicial authorities, trump card He personally worked to reverse the election results in unconventional ways.
So last December, two states, Colorado and Maine, decided to ban Donald Trump Become a candidate in the Republican primary.
Justice between the two countries determines trump card Unable to participate in the election due to his role in the election Attack on the Capitol In January 2021, hundreds of his followers attacked congressional headquarters on the same day that then-Vice President Mike Pence must prove victory Biden.
Specifically, Colorado and maine they think trump card Activities attendeduprising“Therefore, he is not qualified to be the president of the country because 14th Amendment the U.S. constitution.
What does the Fourteenth Amendment say?
“No person shall serve as a senator or representative in Congress, or as an elector for the President or Vice President, or to hold any office of a civil or military nature, under the United States or any state, or as a member of Congress, an officer of the United States, a member of the legislative body of any state, The oath of any executive or judicial officer of the state, to support the Constitution of the United States, who has participated in an insurrection or insurrection against the same person, or has given aid or comfort to his opponents.”
What happens now? Republican primaries will begin in January and end in June.decision maine and Colorado They are only valid for those states’ primaries scheduled for March 5.But both rulings have been suspended pending a final decision, which will be United States Supreme Court.
Therefore, until the Supreme Court rules on the issue, ballots in these states must include trump card.
Public opinion and the parties themselves have questioned Supreme Court to resolve this issue urgently.
As for other states with similar claims about Trump’s candidacy, Michigan, Minnesota and California have ruled that the tycoon has the right to be on the ballot.
What will happen to the U.S. Supreme Court? It’s unpredictable.However, it must be considered that when trump card During its time in power, its composition changed and now has a conservative majority in the country’s main judiciary.
At this time, it should be noted that trump card You can continue to campaign. Furthermore, even if he were convicted in a trial and won the election, nothing would prevent him from becoming President of the United States.
talk BidenThe 81-year-old president’s re-election campaign has generated no voting intentions in opinion polls.
In CNN’s latest national poll, trump card 49% advantage compared to 45% Biden.
A November New York Times poll found trump card will win Biden Five of the six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democrats only lead in Wisconsin.
It is important to note that key states are states that ultimately allow one candidate to win, because in the U.S. electoral system, whoever gets the most votes at the national level does not necessarily win.
In CNN poll, most voters think Biden In terms of political stance, ability to understand people’s problems, acumen and resistance, he does not have the qualities required of a president.
In addition, support Biden In the survey, this proportion dropped significantly among young people. National NBC News poll in November shows him close trump card Among voters ages 18 to 34, that’s a huge setback compared to 2020, when Biden led Trump among this group by 20 points.
Among the various reasons given by young people for not supporting Biden NBC News noted that one scenario, a war between Israel and Hamas, would have the most serious impact on his relationship with this group of voters.
An NBC News poll conducted more than a month after the conflict began showed that 70% of voters under the age of 35 disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war.
Putin has no rivals
From March 15th to 17th Russia There will be a presidential election Vladimir PutinThe 71-year-old is running for re-election for the fifth time since 2000 as a candidate and is almost guaranteed to win.
This will be the first election of the year Russia since the beginning of the war Ukraineas of February 2022.
As with the last election, there will be no openly opposition candidate able to overshadow the show in March Putin.
Therefore, international public opinion believes that this election will be a referendum on how Russia’s military operations are conducted. Ukraine The president aims to maintain the level of support he has enjoyed in the past in polls.
Putin President-elect Russia First elected in 2000, he went on to win four presidential elections.
He served as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012.
The president was able to run again thanks to a controversial constitutional reform approved in 2020. As a result of this amendment, He can run in 2024, and if he wins, he will be able to run for re-election in 2030 and stay in power until 2036.aged 84.
at the moment, Putin He did not face any major opponents. Agence France-Presse noted that five major parties, all Kremlin allies and supporters of the war in Ukraine, have been authorized to nominate candidates without collecting signatures.
Almost all opponents who could jeopardize Putin’s re-election, including anti-corruption activists Alexei Navalnyhad been imprisoned or forced into exile.
The last person to fall was the journalist and former city councilman. Ekaterina DentsovaThe 40-year-old’s presidential candidacy was ruled out by the electoral commission due to “errors” in the registration documents he submitted.
Dentsova He expressed regret for the decision, calling it “sad.”
She described herself as an “alternative” to current powers and criticized Russia’s military actions in 2017. Ukraine.
Trump’s Veto and Biden’s Weaknesses
Author: Francisco Belaunde Matossian
The U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether Trump’s vetoes in Colorado and Maine are successful. It is not ruled out that other states will adopt similar measures, but the final decision will be made by the country’s highest court.
The decision in these states is a contentious issue because even Trump opponents disagree that he should be excluded from the election.
Furthermore, the decision in Colorado was 4-3, meaning there was no very clear position on whether the 14th Amendment applied to charge insurrection.
Now, it’s difficult to predict the outcome of the Supreme Court, but it should be noted that the court has a conservative majority. What’s more, several of them were proposed by Trump himself and may ultimately be voted down.
In terms of the substance of the event, immigration issues will take center stage this year, especially since records for undocumented immigrants entering the United States are being broken. This is an issue that undermines Biden’s candidacy, and it’s clear that Trump will exploit it.
Additionally, Republicans have linked the issue to aid to Ukraine. If Biden hopes to win approval for military and economic aid to Ukraine, he will have to make concessions to Republicans on immigration.
But the president must carefully weigh how far these concessions go, lest he lose the support of Latino voters.
Another thorny issue is the war between Israel and Hamas, which could also hurt some Democratic voters’ votes for Biden.
As for the elections in Russia, they are completely decisive, there are no real elections in that country. They even simply eliminated a pacifist candidate who wanted to run against Putin.
The only thing of interest is to understand the level of involvement and how much Putin will win. The situation is similar to what happens in authoritarian countries where we just wait to see how much the president gets.
Putin’s goal in this election is therefore to maintain his approval ratings from previous elections; this is like a major investigation into his management.