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Weather 31 October – 7 November: the evolution proposed by the ECMWF mathematical model for the first week of November shows a positive geopotential anomaly at 500hPa centered and extended to most of Europe; therefore in these areas the African anticyclone will again be the protagonist, with mainly stable weather and a very mild climate. While we observe a negative geopotential anomaly at 500hPa on the North Atlantic, on the Pole and on the Eurasian territory; therefore in these areas there will be predominantly unstable weather conditions and colder climates. OnItaly days with stable weather are likely to be expected, characterized by a prevalence of sunshine except for the formation of fogs on the plains and valleys; temperatures above average, in a climate that was still warm for the period.
Weather 7 – 14 November: medium scenario showing a positive geopotential anomaly at 500hpPa, this time positioned over central-eastern Europe extending as far as the Balkans and the Eurasian territory; therefore, these areas are expected to be a predominantly stable period, with temperatures above the average. While there is a negative geopotential anomaly at 500hPa on the North Atlantic, therefore on North-Western Europe and on the Scandinavian Peninsula; in these areas we will observe often unstable weather conditions, with temperatures falling and therefore in line with the average for the period. OnItaly according to this configuration, a period still characterized by prevailing stability and above average temperatures, especially in the central-southern sectors, is expected, while the northern regions, in particular those of the Northwest and the Alps, may be affected by an unstable western flow, therefore greater variability with the possibility for the transit of rapid perturbations.
Weather 14 – 21 November: tendency to be taken with pliers, thanks to the high temporal distance; the ECMWF mathematical model predicts a return to prevailing stable conditions around the middle of the month, with a positive geopotential anomaly at 500hPa extended to a large part of central-western Europe and the Atlantic sector. Therefore on theItaly the possibility of average dry weather is shown, especially on the Tyrrhenian and Northern regions with temperatures still above average, while stretches of instability in the South are not excluded thanks to the transit of colder currents from the East which will bring temperatures below average, also on the regions of the middle Adriatic.
Medium to long term projections: our team of meteorologists updates the analyzes twice a week. These are weather projections and not specific forecasts: see them in the 15-day weather trends section.
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