Photovoltaics is ahead of time. All forecasts go to the bin

According to expert forecasts, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Poland will increase to about 7 GW by the end of the year, and may even exceed this level. This is close to the value forecasted in the Polish Energy Policy for … 2030. Everything indicates that in 2022 there will be another increase in solar capacity, bringing us closer to the threshold of 10 GW.

In Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040, a document adopted by the government at the beginning of 2021, it is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach less than 5 GW only in 2025, and this has already happened in June 2021. In turn, the forecast for 2030 says about less than 7.3 GW and will not stand the test of time either.

The Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO) predicted that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Poland may exceed 6 GW at the end of 2021, but as you can see, it happened earlier.

– We did not anticipate then that there would be so much pressure on the increase in energy prices, as it happened in Q3, or that the decision to end the current, the so-called the discount system of support for prosumers will cause such a big stir on the market. These two factors significantly accelerated the development of micro-installations – adds Grzegorz Wiśniewski.

In addition, as Wiśniewski points out, in response to the costs of the power fee in 2021 and the increase in energy prices in contracts for 2022, PV installations will also appear in the business prosumer segment, and their total capacity in 2021 is estimated at 0.2-0 , 3 GW.

– It is expected that this year the installed capacity of PV installations in Poland will increase by over 3 GW. The total accumulated capacity in PV at the end of 2021 will approach the level of 7 GW – concludes Grzegorz Wiśniewski.

A similar level of installed photovoltaic capacity at the end of 2021 is expected by the Polish Photovoltaic Association.

– For about two years it has been clearly seen that all plans and forecasts for the development of photovoltaics in Poland are underestimated, so exceeding 6 GW is not a big surprise now. We expect that at the end of the year we will probably exceed 7 GW, perhaps it will be 7.3 GW – says Ewa Magiera, president of the Polish Photovoltaic Association.

He believes that in the coming months there will certainly be an increase in PV micro-installations on the market, because people planning to generate energy for their own use will want to be able to install the installation before the launch of the new prosumer billing system, netbilling.

At least some companies operating in the photovoltaic market see the situation on the micro-installation market in a similar way. Manitu Solar, a distributor of photovoltaic installation components, indicates that all micro-installations completed by April 1, 2022 will operate under the current rules, i.e. in the so-called discount system.

– The current situation has led to the fact that we all have a lot of work by the end of the year and at the beginning of the next. Specialized installers no longer have deadlines in their calendars because prosumers want to “catch up with the old system” – said Piotr Kisiel, Manitu Solar Managing Director.

In 2022, 10 GW from the sun

According to Ewa Magiera, the dynamics of the development of photovoltaics will not change much in the near future, but …

– We must remember about the difficulties with connecting new solar farms to the grid and problems with the timely implementation of projects, which is a derivative of the energy crisis in China and delays in the production of materials from the most important region for the PV sector – says Ewa Magiera.

Even if the growth in capacity in micro-installations slows down, PSF anticipates the development of another area in PV investments – new investments in the segment of energy-intensive enterprises.

– For this, we need the liberalization of regulations on the construction of energy networks and enabling the construction of direct lines connecting the PV installation with the end user. Legal changes facilitating such a solution were proposed in the draft amendment to the Energy Law and the RES Act – says Ewa Magiera.

He indicates that the implementation of the so-called cable pooling, i.e. the possibility of sharing a power line for PV and wind farms.

– Generally, the industry needs, first of all, legal acts that practically facilitate its functioning and eliminate legislative uncertainty. Therefore, it is important to notify the RES auction system. The stable perspective of maintaining the support system will allow for the full use of the potential of solar energy in Poland. According to PSF, we can end the year 2022 with even 10 GW in photovoltaics. Such an increase will be possible under the condition of changes in regulations taking into account market conditions, including threats to the supply chain from China – emphasizes Ewa Magiera.

The IEO estimates that by the end of 2022, the photovoltaic sector in Poland may expand to 9-10 GW.

– In 2022, until the end of the first quarter, the escape from changes in the prosumer support system will continue, says Grzegorz Wiśniewski.

Earlier, the IEO predicted a slowdown in the development of the segment of individual prosumers to 0.6-0.7 GW per year in 2022. Now it assumes that in 2022 the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the segment of individual prosumers may increase by about 1 GW.

– Due to the fact that the contracted energy prices for the next year and the following years show that it was already cheaper, it is expected that the business prosumer photovoltaic market will grow faster and in 2022 it will reach the level of 0.4-0.5 GW . We estimate that there will be approximately 1.5 GW of new PV installations in the segment of photovoltaic farms – says Grzegorz Wiśniewski.

– In total, we estimate that in 2022 the installed photovoltaic capacity in Poland will increase by about 3 GW and at the end of 2022 it will reach the level of 9-10 GW. Considering that the PV market is growing faster than we predicted in spring, we are raising our forecast for the development of this market for 2025. At the beginning of this year, we estimated that in 2025 the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Poland will increase to 15 GW. Now we estimate that in 2025 it will reach about 17.5 GW – informs Grzegorz Wiśniewski.

IEO assumes, as Grzegorz Wiśniewski explains, that even if the segment of individual prosumers will slow down after the change in the method of settlements, and the dynamic development of PV farms up to 1 MW will be hindered by grid constraints, the markets of large photovoltaic farms, for which it is easier to obtain grid connection conditions, and the prosumer segment business will continue to develop dynamically.

According to ARE data, at the end of September 2021, the installed RES capacity in Poland amounted to nearly 15.3 GW. Of this, over 0.9 GW is attributable to the hydropower segment, almost 6.83 GW is wind energy, approximately 0.26 GW comes from biogas plants, and approximately 0.91 GW from biomass sources and finally just over 6.3 GW from photovoltaics .

About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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