Retail sales accelerate in October, but private consumption outlook has deteriorated, Pekao said, referring to Tuesday’s CSO data. According to analysts, GDP will increase by about 5 percent this year, and by 4 percent next year. Every year.
The Central Statistical Office announced on Tuesday that retail sales in constant prices in October increased by 6.9 percent year-on-year, and month-on-month by 3.6 percent.
Pekao analysts pointed out that retail sales rose in October “close to the consensus” of 6.3 percent. yy. They pointed to the mechanism ensuring acceleration of sales, despite clear signs of deterioration in consumer moods in recent months.
“It is the low base from the previous year related to the self-limitation of consumers and the effects of the first epidemic restrictions introduced in the face of the second wave of the epidemic” – they stated. As they noted, it concerned the sale of fuels and the sale of textiles, clothing and footwear – “the effect is an acceleration, respectively, from 0.4 to 6.9% y / y and from 14.5 to 29.3% y / y”.
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Experts noted that in October, sales of furniture and electronics and household appliances slowed down from 8.0 to 0.2 percent. yy. “To some extent, this is an effect of supply constraints. (…) it is probably also a genuine signal of a weakening propensity to consume,” they assessed. They added that the dynamics of car sales was in the red and emphasized the role of supply problems.
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In October alone, total sales increased by 1.2 percent. mdm (seasonally adjusted), “which has brought the sales index closer to the recent highs.” According to the bank, these values are still below the trend. According to analysts, it can be expected that the effects of rising inflation will be felt by consumers in the coming months, and “the slowing down of real income growth will be reflected in weak consumption”. “The consumer will therefore continue to lag behind the manufacturer,” it indicated.
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“We still expect GDP to grow by 5 percent or slightly faster this year, and by 4 percent next year,” analysts estimate.