The purchasing power of households –
In its quarterly note on the accounts of the Public Administration, Istat underlines that “the purchasing power of households has recorded a slight decline, despite the negative impact of the increase in prices. The household saving rate has decreased by 2 , 3 percentage points, however, still remaining at higher levels than in the pre-pandemic period.
Incidence of revenue –
In summary, total revenues in the second quarter of 2022 increased in trend terms by 8.5% and their incidence on GDP was 48.4%, up by 0.6 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of 2021. In the first half of the year, the incidence of total income on GDP was 45.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the corresponding period of 2021. Current and capital account income in the second quarter of 2022 they marked, in trend terms, an increase of 8.5% and 10.9% respectively.
Investment rates –
In the same period, the investment rate of non-financial companies was 25%, and increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. “The growing trend of the investment rate of non-financial companies is confirmed” while “the profit share has remained stable at the lows of the historical series since 1999”, comments Istat.
GDP estimates improve –
However, Istat improves the trend estimates of GDP. In the third estimate, released 90 days after the reference quarter, the Institute has revised the trend data for the second quarter of 2022 in the best possible way, going from + 4.7% to + 5%. In the second quarter of 2022, GDP, expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 5% compared to the second quarter of 2021 The previous estimate of the cyclical growth was 1.1% while the trend was 4.7%.
The increase in consumption –
Compared to the previous quarter, all the main aggregates of domestic demand are recovering, with a 1.6% increase in national final consumption and 1.1% in gross fixed investments. Imports and exports increased by 2% and 1.6% respectively. National demand net of stocks made a positive contribution of 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth.
The comment of the Codacons –
“The Istat numbers show how Italians have reduced the propensity to save (-2.3%) to make up for the loss of purchasing power caused by the increase in retail prices”. This was explained by the president of Codacons, Carlo Rienzi. For Rienzi, these are “data that are nevertheless destined to clash with the new situation of the last months of 2022, characterized by skyrocketing inflation and very strong increases in electricity and gas bills”.
Collapse of purchasing power –
“This means that compared to the second quarter, consumption, purchasing power and household wealth will collapse in the last months of 2022, with enormous economic and social effects. An emergency that the next government will have to face by abandoning the bankrupt road of bonuses. and by resorting to structural measures capable of bringing down prices and tariffs in a stable and lasting way “, concluded Rienzi, commenting on the estimates released by Istat.