«Putin more and more dangerous. Now the war can extend to NATO »- Corriere.it

from Giuseppe Sarcina

The US political scientist: «Moscow could raise a false alarm. The Kremlin’s mood is gloomy for Meloni’s positions “

WASHINGTON – «The attacks on Italy? Another sign that Putin is increasingly angry and therefore increasingly dangerous. Now the likelihood that war could affect some NATO countries is increasing“. Ian Bremmer52, political scientist, founder and president of the Eurasia Group study center, sees “many preparations underway for a winter full of risks.”

Will Putin continue to bet on European divisions?

«The Russians are increasingly realizing that Europeans are still very compact, despite the economic difficulties. The EU unanimously approved eight sanctions packages against Moscow. Furthermore, all 27 countries have opened the possibility for Ukraine to join the European Union. Gas prices are falling. It is clear that all this is making Putin nervous, angrier and more angry. And this is reflected on the diplomatic front, but I believe that we will begin to see the effects also on the military level ».

Yesterday, the spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry, Maria Zackharova, accused Italy of having carried out “a provocative attack on Russia” by excluding it from the summit on weapons of mass destruction underway in Rome …

“Yes, this too is a sign of the dark moods of the Kremlin, even towards Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni adheres to the hard line on weapons and sanctions. But I expect the Russians to try to wedge themselves into possible divisions in the coalition that supports the Italian government. Clearly the Kremlin took note of Berlusconi’s pro-Putin statements. In any case, this is only a lateral aspect of what may happen in the coming weeks ».

What are you afraid of?

«May the war invade some NATO countries. Many military preparations are underway. Russia could sound a false, grotesque alarm, claiming that Ukraine is on the verge of using a “dirty bomb” (a conventional device enriched with radioactive material ed). Putin could then launch unilateral attacks against strategic infrastructures in Europe, such as the telecommunications backbones or the pipelines themselves. There could be many cyber raids or sabotage on the ground. “

Are you thinking of attacks like the one against the Nord Stream pipeline?

“That was a key step. We still don’t know who damaged the pipes. It could have been the Ukrainians, with the backing of the Europeans or the Americans. Or the responsibility could lie with the Russians. If the first hypothesis were true, Putin would feel entitled to carry out similar actions. If the latter were true, the Russians would still be encouraged to move forward, as the West’s reaction was not as harsh as one might have thought. That is why I think that the chances that the conflict can go beyond the borders of Ukraine have significantly increased ”.

Will the White House continue to support Ukraine?

«I believe that the Republicans will win the House in the midterm elections: there will be more control over the aid sent to Kiev. But I don’t expect line changes in the short term. It will be another thing if and when Trump runs. At that point the divisions among the parliamentarians will increase ».

October 27, 2022 (change October 27, 2022 | 08:11)

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