Recession on the way and fear of central bank moves: because markets have plummeted

Macroeconomic data that concretize the nightmare recession. Petroleum in consequent collapse. Possible interventions of the ECB not only from an anti-inflation perspective. And many political tensions, related to the war in Ukraine but also at elections in Italy. An indigestible cocktail on the last day of the week for the financial markets, with the international stock exchanges – from Europe to Wall Street – at peak and with government bond yields in strong growth. The black jersey among the financial centers was Milan, also awaiting the vote on Sunday: it lost 3.3%. The index Stoxx 600, which brings together the main stocks listed on the Old Continent, left 2.3% on the ground, a drop that is equivalent to 232 billion euros of capitalization lost in one session. While on Wall Street the Dow Jones fell by around 600 points to its lowest level since the beginning of the year. The Petroleum, with prices falling over 6% in New York around $ 78 a barrel, the lowest since January. And even gold is no longer considered a safe haven: prices are down by more than 1%, to their lowest since August 2020.

The Pmi indices (purchasing manager index) of the eurozone in net contraction. In particular for the Germany the index fell to a low of over 2 years a 45.9 points, well below the threshold of 50 which acts as a watershed between expansion and contraction. In short, the German economy seems destined to contract in the third quarter and the forecast indicators point to a storm also for the fourth. On the contrary, the US indicates how the US economy in September slow down less than expected. The compound SME index is in fact up to 49.3 points, but the markets at this stage read everything backwards: if the economy pulls, the risks of inflation and therefore of containment interventions by central banks.

To worsen the climate, the hypotheses of Reutersaccording to which the ECB is evaluating one reduction of interest to banks leaving liquidity in Frankfurt. This is because after the rate hike there is talk of tens of billions of euros a year, which puts stress on the reserves of some central banks and “puts the ECB in the politically uncomfortable position of giving subsidies to banks while the public does the math. with inflation “.

The tension has also hit the market for government bonds, where returns have soared. The spread between BTP and German Bund it closed the last session before the vote up 230 points against 220 at the start, with the Treasury product rate at 4.32%. The yield of the Italian bond grew by 16 basis points, but it was a session of passion especially for the bond of the same maturity of the Great Britainwhich rose 33 basis points to 3.82% after the presentation of the budget that cuts taxes by £ 45 billion without indicating the roofing.

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About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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