so in the smaller regions it ran to two- Corriere.it

A system that, in some regions, it rewards the largest parties and cuts out the others. From Friuli Venezia Giulia to Basilicata, from Liguria to Umbria: the race, in the Senate, for a few, practically two, center-left against center-right. There is no place for anyone else: there are regions where 15-20% may not be enough to obtain a seat in Palazzo Madama. A threshold of natural barrier much higher than the 3% predicted, on paper, by the Rosatellum. Side effect of the cut of parliamentarians, which is combined with the electoral law with which we will go to vote on 25 September. When the reform that brought the senators from 315 to 200 was approved, a series of corrective measures were immediately spoken, but they were never approved. And so today the Senate is still elected, as the Constitution provides, on a regional basis (unlike the Chamber, on a national basis).

The 8 regions

Out of 200 senators, 74 are chosen in single-member constituencies. Here the candidate wins who, in the single college, gets the most votes, even one more than the other. It is clear that, according to the polls, a challenge between the center-right and the center-left: with a mechanism that rewards alliances, it is difficult for those outside the two main coalitions to arrive first. But even in the proportional part, in the smaller regions, there will be a majority push. There are five regions which, in the proportional part, elect only three senators (in a single plurinominal college): Friuli Venezia Giulia, Liguria, Marche, Abruzzo and Sardinia. Basilicata and Umbria they have two seats each. The Molise one. If the place is one, it is clear that the one who gets the most votes and that’s all, wins, all the others are cut off. Where there are two, the trap effect is also immediate. But this mechanism also works where there are three seats available. In the projections made by the Cattaneo Institute – which uses the average of the polls published in the last month and the results of the 2019 European Championships, an indicator of the territorial distribution of the vote – in all these five regions the center-right gets two seats and the center-left one. Where there are three seats up for grabs, there is no room for anyone out of the alliances between center-left and center-right – explains the director of the Cattaneo Institute, Salvatore Vassallo, professor of political science -. The only territory where the Movement could get a seat is Sardinia, where the 5 Stars made an exploit and still given strong and where the center-right could take less than elsewhere.

A natural barrier threshold

Even if it is difficult to calculate in the abstract what the natural barrier threshold is – explains Vassallo -, the evident effect. Virtually all polls give a center-right that sails over 45% and the center-left that approaches 30%. The center-right thus has more than double that of any other formation, more than double that of the Movimento 5 Stelle or the Terzo Polo di Calenda, with these numbers – concludes the professor – there is no possibility that a third formation will enter. In short, to have a seat it would have to exceed 15%. A natural barrier, in fact, typical of small colleges, which assign few seats. And with a Senate elected on a regional basis, based on the Constitution, there is no alternative: in regions with fewer inhabitants, to respect the proportion between elected and electors, it is necessary to create small colleges.

A still regional Senate?

Was it necessary, therefore, to reform an elected Senate, such as the Chamber, on a national basis and to create larger colleges? I do not think it is a requirement dictated by the electoral system – the opinion of Vassallo -. How many seats were assigned in the proportional part, in the Senate, with the Mattarellum? In these regions there were fewer, and without a cut of parliamentarians. And no one raised the issue. However, under another aspect, there is: The idea that the Senate is an expression of the territories now survives only in the electoral aspect, because the seats are assigned region by region. When the constituents decided that the Senate should be elected on a regional basis, however, because they thought it would be a forum for representing regional interests. what today? No, there is only the electoral aspect. For the political class, for the problems that are raised, the nature of non-regional representation. Except, in fact, on the day of the vote.