The wait for cooler weather is an exercise in patience for us in Southeast Texas. Unfortunately, the wait is one that must continue for a little while longer as temperatures remain above average. Heat index values, reflecting the effects of elevated humidity, will top out near and above 100 degrees through the weekend, but isolated to widely scattered storms could help take the edge off for some.
Staying warm through Beyoncé weekend
Drier air was a prominent fixture in the weather forecast earlier this week. One National Weather Service forecaster described the sensation of that drier air as “supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” in Wednesday morning’s forecast discussion, which happened to coincide with National Gibberish Day.
The bad news is the drier air we enjoyed earlier this week is a thing of the past, at least for now. A return to southeasterly onshore winds has pumped in a moisture-rich air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. The result is widespread higher dew points in the 70s to end the week, causing afternoon “feels like” temperatures through the weekend to top out between 103 and 106 degrees.
Heat index temperatures, readings that factor in humidity’s effect on the body, are expected to be between 100 and 105 degrees in most of Southeast Texas through the weekend.
WeatherBELLCould air temperatures alone make it into the triple digits? The forecast currently remains optimistic that triple-digit air temperatures will not return either day this weekend, at least not in a widespread fashion like they did over the summer.
That said, don’t be shocked if your backyard thermometer briefly climbs to 100 degrees or higher. Regardless of what the air temperature gets to through the weekend, you’re encouraged to continue practicing proper heat safety.
Many people will be out and about in Houston this weekend, as Beyoncé brings her two-night Renaissance World Tour to her hometown. If you’re one of those heading to NRG Stadium either Saturday or Sunday evening, plan on heat index values between 95 and 100 when gates open at 6:30 pm To avoid having the heat break your soul, wear lightweight and light-colored clothing .
Rain risk for Friday night football
We do have a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day this week, with rain chances perhaps slightly higher Friday and Sunday.
Let’s first break down Friday’s risk of storms. Weather forecast models indicate a cluster of weakening thunderstorms will make a run at areas along and east of Interstate 45 by Friday evening. Rain chances through Friday are in the 20 to 30 percent range in Houston. High school football games between Houston and Beaumont are most at risk of being impacted by spotty showers or storms, so plan accordingly and keep an eye on the forecast throughout the day.
Saturday’s rain potential is a slim one and will mainly be confined to areas south of Interstate 10 and along the coast. Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are forecast to develop as daytime heating ramps up, but we need to emphasize that this risk will be isolated to widely scattered. Most areas will miss out on rain through Saturday.
An approaching cold front will result in maybe a few more storms by Sunday evening. Any storms that do develop could produce locally heavy rain and lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas with a lot of pavement but poor drainage. That cold front will move into Southeast Texas by early next week.
Cold front arrives early next week
Our greatest chance for showers and storms will actually come with our next cold front on Monday. Exact details on storm timing and rainfall amounts remain uncertain, but the latest weather information suggests a half-inch to an inch of rain will be possible through Monday. Every little bit of rain will help relieve the ongoing drought across Southeast Texas.
What does seem more apparent, based on forecast data, is that we won’t get much of a cooling effect from this upcoming front. Maximum temperatures will drop from the mid-90s only to the lower 90s with the passage of the cold front.
One weather forecast model suggests that storms will arrive in Southeast Texas by Monday evening. This is only one model run, so specific timing of Monday’s storm chances will come into better focus by the end of the weekend.
Pivotal Weather