Full crates and empty urns. This could be the fate for the Democratic party in the mid-term elections on 8 November. Leftist candidates continue to grind records in donations, but these numbers are unlikely to be converted into votes.
One of the key clashes for Congress and Senate will be played in Pennsylvania where two singular characters compete against each other, the Democrat John Fetterman, a 2-meter colossus with liberal positions, and the Republican Mehmet Oz, surgeon and TV personality. Fetterman raised $ 26 million in 2022 against Oz’s $ 18 million.
In Ohio, dem Tim Ryan collected 21 in six months, 17 more than his opponent JD Vance, author of the best-selling American Elegy. In the south, the left fared even better: outgoing Arizona senator Mark Kelly raised 52 million while in Georgia Raphael Warnock raised 60. Even the run of the governors goes in the same direction. In Texas, which the DEMs have been trying to take over for years, rising left star Beto O’Rourke raised 27.6 million, 2 million more than Governor Greg Abbott.
Millions of dollars to push voters to the polls. Yet it could be a completely in vain exercise. To get an idea, just look at 2020. While Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in the race for the White House, other Democrats gave way to the Republicans. In South Carolina the donkey party spent 130 million to oust the hawk Lindsey Graham who, however, won with 54% of the votes. In Kentucky 90 million was not enough to defeat Mitch McConnell.
For a politics in which commercials, rallies and door-to-door campaigns require mountains of money, it seems paradoxical. And this for a couple of reasons. The first is that according to analysts the returns in terms of money invested and votes obtained decrease as spending increases. The second concerns the origin of the money. In many cases, large fundraising organizations, the so-called CAPs, send money throughout the United States.
According to the findings of the Electoral Commission, the shares of money arriving outside the states in which the campaign is underway are also growing in this round.
In 2020, large liberal donors from California and New York pumped money into Georgia to help win the dem. But magic doesn’t always work. In conservative states it is difficult for money to move so many votes. Particularly the case of Wyoming where Liz Cheney is playing for re-election. The daughter of the former vice president, who voted impeachment against Trump and who is part of the commission investigating the assault on Capitol Hill, is behind in the polls. Yet her portfolio is rich with donors from Texas, California, Virginia, even New York.
However, the vote remains unpredictable. Biden is in free fall. At the same time, the boom in inflation will call the discontented to the polls. The dems are pointing to microdonators as a sign of an active electoral base, but for them a half disaster is looming.
According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model in the House, the GOP can aspire to a majority, while the Senate should remain divided in half. The unknown abortion looms over all this, but above all the effect of the FBI raid against Trump. Two huge issues that can galvanize party voters and turn the tables once again.