The 9 colleges in the balance in the elections and the variable Citizenship income on the vote at Sud-

from Adriana Logroscino

All party leaders are on tour in the southern cities – from Naples to Bari – for the campaign finale. This year 3.1% of voters received at least one month of citizenship income

Party leaders chasing the vote in the colleges of the South: several of these are considered to be among the most contestable, a real treasure in this final glimpse of the electoral campaign. Here then comes all the big names. Giuseppe Conte’s tour has just ended. But also Giorgia Meloni yesterday, after Puglia and Campania, crossed the length and breadth of Sicily. While Enrico Letta was in Pompeii. In the Campania capital today there is Carlo Calenda with the top candidates.

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Self the fundamental South
what is being asked in the party secretariats how much will the citizenship income weigh on the orientation of southern citizens, which for almost 70% comes to families residing under Rome.

The theme imposed itself in the electoral campaign e the front of those who wanted to abolish it gradually thinned. Now there is more talk of changes and corrections than of abolition. At stake is the result of each list, in the proportional dispute. But above all, precisely, the nine single-member constituencies judged to be contestable (and actually very much disputed). Five are in Campania, two in Puglia, two in Sardinia.

Predicting the effects in the polls of the heated debate around the instrument introduced on the impulse of the 5 Stars is not easy. It is essential to start from the data to see the possible incidence.

To receive at least one month of income of citizenship, in the first seven months of 2022, according to the table published by INPS, were 1.6 million of adults with voting rights: approximately 3.1% of the total electorate. Considering the physiological abstention, that 3.1% could weigh 5% in the polls and determine the allocation of 15-20 seats in parliament, through the distribution of the vote with the proportional.

However, the percentage becomes considerably higher in the regions where it is concentrated the largest number of beneficiaries. Beyond two thirds of these, 1.6 million Italians of age live in the South. But where? In Sicily: the 293 thousand earners account for 6.3% of the voters in that region (4.5 million). In Puglia: 147 thousand beneficiaries equal to 4.3% of those entitled to vote. In Sardinia: 60 thousand, 4%. And in Campania: almost 340 thousand, equal to 6.8% of the electoral body.

And it is precisely in Campania and Puglia that the largest number of single-member colleges in the South are concentrated, judged to be contestable by research institutes. Crossing the data, therefore, the variable citizenship income could affect the dry allocation of seats in the colleges of Naples Fuorigrotta, Naples San Carlo, Giugliano and Torre del Greco, Bari, Molfetta for the Chamber, and again Naples for the Senate, Cagliari and Sassari for Palazzo Madama.

Who will benefit? Conte has long assured that, beyond the predictions, the 5 Star Movement will conquer some colleges. However, in a system in which whoever takes one vote more than the other competitors wins, paradoxically, a good result of third wheel (the pentastellati, in fact, compared to the two groupings around Meloni and Letta) should favor one of the two coalitions. In the Democratic Party it is counted that that southern vote is eroding especially the consent of the center-right. On the contrary, the center-right leaders engaged in the territory anticipate a comeback of the M5S to the detriment of the unitary center-left candidates.

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September 21, 2022 (change September 21, 2022 | 08:19)

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