– In turn, in the medium term consumer price growth will be reduced by the monetary policy tightening implemented by the NBP – added the vice-president of the NBP. Kightley also informed that the Polish economy has recently recorded large increases in investments.
– When it comes to investments, we have had high increases in the last two quarters. In the third quarter, we have an investment increase of 9.3. In the fourth quarter it will be above 11%, in line with our estimates. We also have quarterly increases, which is not only a base effect, but also quarter-on-quarter growth, she stated.
As stated by Kightley, the positive trends in the Polish economy continued in the last quarter of last year. – The monthly economic indicators show that the positive trends in the Polish economy continued also in the fourth quarter, in particular, retail sales, industrial production and construction and assembly were growing rapidly – she said.
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The deputy president of the NBP also said that December data indicate a slight improvement in inflation expectations.
– According to our research, inflation expectations are mainly adaptive, i.e. when inflation is high in the past, households also expect high inflation in the future. And we can also see it clearly in the December data, because in December we already had cuts in gasoline prices and you can see that even this 30-grosz cut made these inflation expectations a bit better – she said.
Inflation will be high. Morawiecki does not hide it
Anti-inflationary shields will temporarily reduce the effects of high price increases, but will not lower inflation later, assessed the chief economist of ING Bank Śląski, Rafał Benecki. He added that the jump in CPI inflation in the first half of 2022, it will be smaller, but in July it will be possible even approx. 10 percent.
– The CPI hill is shifting to the following months, the peak in July is very high, because then the solutions lowering prices will cease to apply – he stressed.
According to the expert, the situation looks as if we are strongly dependent on artificial lowering of inflation or other forms of economic stimulation (previously, the economic policy excessively stimulated consumer demand). “This is a bad prognosis for the future. Anti-inflationary treatment must take place sometime, even if it is associated with a temporary downturn in the economic situation” – he stressed.
In Benecki’s opinion, the high rate of price growth is not only an effect of external shocks. – External price shocks fell on the fertile ground of the inflationary structure of GDP based on the consumption boomm, he explained.
He added that high CPI inflation is also caused by demand pressure as well as a wage-price spiral, the impact of which on inflation will increase in 2022. In his opinion, it is impossible to control high inflation without some form of cooling demand.
Adopted on Tuesday by the government of the so-called the anti-inflationary shield 2.0 assumes a reduction in VAT rates for food, gas and fertilizers to 0%, for electricity and heat to 5%. and fuel up to 8 percent. It is to enter into force on February 1.