“The center-right takes 90% of the colleges”. The scenario that disturbs Letta

The Letta & Co theater these days could further pave the way for center right, which approaches the general elections on Sunday 25 September with confidence and optimism. The errors of evaluation and the constant twists and turns risk costing the company dearly left, which fears of being swept away in the challenge of single-member boarding schools. And it is precisely on this front that the coalition of Forza Italia, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia can get its fill, thanks to its internal compactness and divisions in the red field.

The boom of the center-right

In these days Enrico Letta has evoked the danger that the center-right could win two thirds of the seats in Parliament, thus having the possibility to modify the Constitution without a referendum. Such a scenario is by no means obvious, but the numbers show that the advantage of the coalition will be very complicated to fill by the Democratic Party, the Italian Left and the Greens.

Indeed Rado FondaHead of Research a Swgexplained that the break between Enrico Letta and Carlo Calenda will complicate the overtaking attempted by the Pd: “Now the coalition is less competitive, especially in single-member constituencies, where the center-left appears to be winning only in its strongholds“. In the polls the center-right is given at 45%, while the left may not be able to exceed the threshold of 30% of the consensus.

A nightmare for Letta: it is no coincidence that Fonda, interviewed by Corriere della Serastressed that Democratic Party and allies “they could conquer about 15 colleges, 30 in the event of a real exploit“. A very different thing for the center-right, which instead”can win 90% of the seats assigned by theuninominal“That would translate into about 132 seats in the House and 74 in the Senate.

Left on tilt

Obviously they do not go unnoticed i surveys, which reflect the orientation of Italians in the light of the weekly dynamics of politics. The latest survey of Swg for La7made known yesterday, is clear: on the one hand Come on Italy And League they increase their preferences by 0.5% each; on the other hand, the Democratic Party (-0.4%), Action / + Europe (-0.3%) and the Italian Greens-Left (-0.4%) are losing ground. In essence, the voters punish the protagonists of the show offered by the left.

An interesting observation came from the expert Lorenzo Pregliascoaccording to which the Democratic Party “risks transferring to the electorate the feeling that the game is lost at the start“. The director of YouTrend explained to The Republic that this would mean going to meet “to a painful and neat defeat“.

The Calenda factor

The narrative that Carlo Calenda it would act as a magnet for a good part of the center-right voters, perhaps winking at those of Forza Italia. But he was the same leader as Action to reduce its attractive force: first the pact signed with the Democratic Party had handed it over to the red riverbed by acting as a crutch to the left; then with the tear of him he certainly did not give proof of reliability and stability.

Indeed the pollster Renato Mannheimer explained to the newspaper on newsstands today that there is a basic doubt: could a possible third pole (Italia Viva and Action) really blow votes from the center-right moderates? “I doubt that there will be a large flow of unhappy Forza Italia voters who would abandon the center-right to vote for two exponents from the left.“Mannheimer said.

The feeling is that the “Calenda phenomenon” is only widespread on social media and does not find correspondence in real life. In fact I pray to YouTrend he said that the share, in the first estimates after the break, is around 3%. Before it was credited at 5% or so, but thanks to the federation with + Europe which now seems to be destined to jump.

Calenda wears the role of a now divisive, very polarizing character. For this reason too, you risk not winning the political elections. Positive judgments about him are around “to 20% of the electorate“, while 60% of electricians and voters”expresses a substantial ‘lack of confidence’ in Calenda“. Which is associated with a figure”not very solid, humoral, which changes position following the wave of the moment“.

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Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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