“The increase in cases is the effect of fewer restrictions and of the few children with the vaccine” – Corriere.it

Of Margherita De Bac

The epidemiologist: unexpected acceleration. The increase in infections present in all Regions, particularly significant in some

More cases, fewer tampons. The conclusion that the incidence is probably even greater than that reported, but it is not evident because there is less recourse to diagnostic assessment, immediately gets to the heart of the matter. Stefania SalmasoItalian Association of Epidemiology.

The descent of the curve was expected to be constant from February onwards. Should we be surprised that this was not the case?

In fact we are surprised. On February 13, the new positives were only about 22,000 and also our AIE association had considered plausible an evolution of a rapid decline in the incidence with a 30% reduction of new cases every week. Instead, in the following days there was an increase and on 8 March we reached 60,000.

Unexpected acceleration?

Unfortunately so. Now the incidence of 500 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants could reach 600 as early as March 14th. The increase present in all regions, particularly significant in some.

What is happening?

Today in Italy there are at least 970,000 people who have been found to be infected and are contagious. The easing of many restrictive measures and individual behaviors certainly played a decisive role in the reversal of the trend. Children and young people, especially between the ages of 6 and 10, were particularly affected in the first half of February, then the number rapidly dropped. On the other hand, the decline was less rapid among adults.

Which ages are most affected?

The highest growth rates are between 14 and 29 years. Children can be easy vehicles of infection in the family unit, it is important to vaccinate them. If the infection continues to circulate among adults, the chances of it reaching people at risk of developing serious illness inevitably increase. The same happens in at least 10 European countries. The European Center for the Control of Infectious Diseases (ECDC) warns of a probable increase in deaths.

Is it the fault of Omicron’s sub-variants?

Data on their circulation in Italy are scarce. Generally we look at what is happening elsewhere, such as in the United Kingdom which seems to have an anticipated situation compared to ours. Here the most transmissible variant of Omicron has already displaced the others so much that there is also an increase in hospital admissions. But the picture of the causes is not yet clear.

The state of emergency ends on March 31st. A risk?

The end of the state of emergency and the return to the ordinary I hope does not mean the downfall of the most important infection monitoring systems. It would be enormous damage to public health, especially if coupled with the lapse of control measures.

With the end of the obligations, do you think that the virus is also over?

To think that if there is no specific prohibition there is no risk of a dangerous attitude.

One third of the unvaccinated world population. For the virologist Giorgio Pal the virus destined to persist in the human species and to recur periodically, in a seasonal form. As an epidemiologist what do you think?

Covid will stay with us for a long time and it will not be taken for granted that it will be seasonal. Recall that in South Africa the Omicron variant emerged in the summer. We have more and more tools to cure the disease and by now a large part of the population, thanks above all to vaccines, has developed at least a partial immunity that will take us out of the pandemic phase.

March 11, 2022 (change March 11, 2022 | 23:45)

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Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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