It is time to define the playing field, “weigh” the colleges and choose the candidates to be deployed in the various challenges. The center-right is in the final squeeze to define the “mapping” of the 221 single-member seats, those in which it will be necessary to play as a team to try to elect a coalition candidate. The expectations are high, the polls are positive – we are working on the super-media Agi-Youtrend – and the possibility of going close to a sort of en plein is concrete.
Yesterday, the Ansa agency, illustrating the situation, spoke of a “great blue expanse”, that is the color of certain colleges for the center-right, “with small reddish spots”, those in which the center-left is ahead, concentrated only between Tuscany and Emilia Romagna and South Tyrol. According to this estimate – which will be the basis on which the leaders of FdI, Lega and Forza Italia in a meeting scheduled for Monday will return to confront each other – in the Senate the center-left of Enrico Letta could count on just five armored colleges and a dozen in the Chamber. The most uncertain constituencies would be about twenty in the Senate and about 40 in the Chamber.
But what are the areas at risk for the center-right? An off-limits area is considered to be that of Livorno and Prato and then Emilia between Bologna, Modena and Reggio Emilia. The same goes for the Senate where the coalition that gathers around the Democratic Party can count on some certain colleges: two in Emilia, one in Tuscany, one in Rome and the other in Milan.
In both chambers the center-right would be certain to win practically everywhere in the north, except for South Tyrol where the center-left remains ahead in both branches of Parliament, in the province of Genoa in the Chamber and in those of Trento and Turin. in the Senate. At the center, the only region where Enrico Letta’s alliance would gather more parliamentarians than its opponents is Tuscany. Some chance for the center-right would be in the area between Lucca, Massa and Pistoia.
The coalition led by Giorgia Meloni, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi could fill up with boarding schools in Umbria, Abruzzo, Molise, Basilicata, Friuli, Veneto, Calabria and Sicily. The center-left, again according to these forecasts, could obtain 3 senators in the Center-South: 2 in Campania, one in Naples and in the Phlegraean area, the other, more difficult, in the Fiumicino area, in Lazio. Good chances for the center-right also in Sardinia where, however, nothing is taken for granted. In Sicily the moderate-sovereigns risk only in the provinces of Catania and Ragusa.
The center-right, yesterday, returned to confront the centrist question. A meeting was also held between us with Italy, the mayor of Venice Luigi Brugnaro and representatives of Italy in the center, the formation of Giovanni Toti, to explore the possibility of a single list that could be taken over in the distribution of seats. from Fratelli d’Italia (the share in this case should rise from 11 to 13). The knot of the UDC remains to be resolved, with the party of Lorenzo Cesa which will have to negotiate its colleges with Forza Italia. Finally, as regards the leaders, if Silvio Berlusconi will run for the Senate, Giorgia Meloni is ready to play her game in the House.