After Tuesday’s MPC decision to raise interest rates by 50 bp the zloty did not reflect earlier gains, even though some analysts expected larger scale of rate hikes. On Wednesday morning the market is waiting for the speech of the NBP governor Adam Glapiński.
On Tuesday, the euro rate fell to PLN 4.56, ie the levels not recorded since October. The zloty did not weaken even after the MPC decision announced at 4:00 p.m. Economists from Bank Pekao estimate that this is a good omen for bulls, and the Polish currency still has a technical and fundamental space for appreciation. Analysts from PKO BP and Bank Millennium point out that the PLN was supported by good investors’ sentiment towards the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe.
On Wednesday just after At 10:00 the EUR / PLN exchange rate increased by over 0.2%, returning to the level of PLN 4.57. The zloty was also slightly losing against other major currencies: the franc, which was paid over 4.41 zlotys, the dollar, which cost slightly over 4.04 zlotys, and the pound, which rose to around 5.48 zlotys.
“The highlight of the day for the domestic financial market will be the press conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland, which may shed some light on the prospects of monetary policy. If Glapiński maintains his readiness for further interest rate hikes, we hope that the zloty will remain strong and fluctuate around 4.56 In the following days, however, the center of gravity shaping the valuation of the Polish currency will shift from local to global factors, wrote economists from Bank Millennium. The President of the National Bank of Poland will take the floor at 15:00.
“In the coming days, it will be important for the market whether the MPC intends to maintain the cycle of rate hikes of 50 bp at each meeting and how future decisions will be influenced by inflation data, which in December probably exceeded 8% (publication on Friday). EUR / PLN will remain below PLN 4.60, and further moves by the Council will push it towards 4.55 during the current quarter, “analysts from PKO BP wrote. More currency forecasts can be found in the text by Krzysztof Kolany entitled “Analysts have lost faith in the zloty. Currency forecast for 2022”.