At the Wednesday press conference, the NBP governor emphasized that the NBP was not interested in weakening the zloty exchange rate.
– The NBP and Poland accept a floating zloty exchange rate, which works well. We accept this rate, reserve the right to intervene, but only if the rate changes too quickly. Because it causes confusion, for example for companies – said Adam Glapiński. “The course as it is now is acceptable,” he added.
Glapiński, answering the question about “the time of further increases and maintaining the current pace, and whether the cycle may extend until 2023” reminded that in voting sometimes one vote is decisive. – Taking into account our forecast, I would urge one more rate hike. In order to properly act on what has happened in the economy in these few quarters. It will be difficult to lower these prices. I will persuade for a 50bp rate hike, but I do not know what the MPC will do, said Glapiński.
– I think it will be safe, such an anchoring. Such 3 percent. (in the case of the reference rate – ed.) this would be a moderate hedge. No exaggeration, but solid – he added.
Economists expect the main NBP rate to rise from the current 2.25%. to about 4%, but there are those who indicate that in 2023 it may be even 4.5%.
When asked about inflation in 2022 and further interest rate increases, Glapiński stated that “the rate of up to 3 percent will not have any negative effects on the economy. But any increase in rates causes a certain slowdown in economic growth.” “This is a medicine that has negative effects,” he explained.
– If the economic situation improves, the economic dynamics increases, it may turn out to be up to 4 percent. we will not hurt. Mainly I mean unemployment – he added.
He stressed that “it is good to maintain increases by 0.5 percentage point in the cycle”. – Central banks have a rather steady rhythm. Let’s stick to those 50 basis points. But perhaps this is the end. This is the art of influencing the economy; one cannot disregard what the government is doing – noted Glapiński.