The zloty is losing sight. Will there be an intervention? – Puls Biznesu

The week for the zloty started with a continuation of the downward trend. Analysts are starting to mumble about the intervention by the NBP.

On Monday at On November 10, the price for the euro was PLN 4.7182 (+0.77%), the dollar was PLN 4.1854 (+0.80%), and the franc was PLN 4.5066 (+0.95%).

The zloty was not helped by even better than expected data on industrial output dynamics in October.

In the month the EUR / PLN exchange rate increased by 2.5%, USD / PLN by 5.57% and CHF / PLN by 4.88%.

“For most franc borrowers, the next installment will be the highest since obtaining the loan,” comments Jarosław Sadowski from Expander.

Expander’s calculations show that over the past 6 months, the installment of a 30-year loan of PLN 300,000, taken in January 2008, increased from PLN 1,834 to PLN 2,022.

What will the NBP do?

In the last interview, the NBP president Adam Glapiński stated that the weakening of the zloty was due to the strengthening of the dollar in the global market. The zloty may also be adversely affected by local factors, such as the exacerbation of the epidemic situation and the tense situation on the border with Belarus, which contributes to the outflow of capital from Poland.

According to Adam Glapiński, in the conditions of increased inflation, further depreciation of the zloty would not be consistent with the NBP interest rate policy.

“In our opinion, this indicates a growing probability of the NBP’s currency intervention in the event of a further depreciation of the zloty, which would be in contradiction with the monetary policy aimed at lowering inflation to a level below 3.5% in the horizon of several quarters,” commented Credit Agricole analysts.

“In our opinion, this is a signal that the bank’s tolerance for the weakening of the domestic currency may be exhausted, which opens the door to verbal and actual interventions,” commented PKO BP economists.

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author: Kamil Zatoński

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The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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