The zloty is not going to get stronger. It is among the weakest currencies of emerging markets

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What is the situation on the currency market? The expert explains

Tuesday’s zloty performance is not as crazy as in the last two weeks, but the Polish currency is not going to strengthen. The euro costs (at 1:50 p.m.) about PLN 4.72, a level that has not been seen for 12 years.

The Swiss franc – not counting a short, shock shot at levels over PLN 5 on “Black Thursday” on January 15, 2015 – is the most expensive in history, its price hit PLN 4.50 on Tuesday, and on Monday it even broke this level. The US dollar is constantly increasing – its exchange rate is currently approx. PLN 4.19, the most up to over a year.

Depending on the currency, the scale of the zloty weakening in the last two weeks ranges from a dozen to even more than PLN 0.20.

USD / PLN exchange rate

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EUR / PLN exchange rate

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CHF / PLN exchange rate

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Zloty among the weakest currencies in the world this year

The analyst Holger Zschaepitz notes that the zloty is in “good” company, incl. Turkish Lira, Argentinian, Chilean and Colombian pesos, and the Hungarian forint in the emerging market currencies that have lost the most against the dollar this year.

On the other hand, for example, the Turkish lira is still a completely different league than the zloty. Her course in November collapses over the top. Tuesday was another dramatic day for the currency after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan argued again that Turkey needed interest rate cuts.

.‘Erdoganomics’. They hit 20 percent with inflation, and they cut rates. Lira is drowning

Read more about exchange rates at Gazeta.pl

Jacek Sasin spoke in the context of work and familiesSasin had a moment of honesty and it started. “It can’t be lower”

Morawiecki and Glapiński did not help the zloty

On Friday, November 19, the NBP governor Adam Glapiński said in an interview with PAP that “further weakening of the zloty would not be consistent with the NBP interest rate policy”. On Tuesday, he referred to the weakness of the zloty again.

However, the zloty did not react very much to these words.

Friday’s comment by Glapiński for PAP did not positively affect the zloty in any way. The market still treats the NBP as a rather unpredictable institution. Glapiński made some reference to currency intervention, but nothing was clear from his words

– comments Łukasz Zembik, head of the Analyzes Department at TMS Brokers in an interview with Gazeta.pl.

Nevertheless, according to the economists of Credit Agricole bank, the Friday’s statement by Glapiński pointed to the growing probability of the bank’s currency intervention in the event of a further depreciation of the zloty.

The words of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also worked for a few hours on Monday. – We will do everything in communication and in our real actions to make the zloty a bit stronger – said the head of government.

The journalist Łukasz Grajewski draws attention to an interesting point of view. He points out that the weakening zloty is important and good news for Poles working abroad and a strong argument for continuing to earn in euro and not to return to the Vistula River.

Belgium.  Riots during a protest against the introduction of restrictions.  The police used water cannonsBelgium. Riots during the protest, there were clashes with the police [ZDJĘCIA]

Chance for a correction in the coming days

The strong dollar is the main factor behind the weakness of the zloty. Most emerging market currencies are losing out. The break of the EUR / PLN 4.6750 level gave an open signal for the zloty depreciation to over 4.90, although I personally think that we will not go that high, at least in the near future. I think there would have to be a major collapse in the global market, global, high risk aversion, declines on Wall Street

– comments Łukasz Zembik, head of the Analyzes Department at TMS Brokers in an interview with Gazeta.pl. Another argument (another one) for the strengthening of the dollar was the information that the Fed chairman Jerome Powell will lead this institution for the second term.

Łukasz Zembik, on the other hand, sees a greater chance for a slight correction in the zloty in the coming days due to Thanksgiving (November 25) and a long weekend in the US or the approaching end of the month.

It is possible that the speculative capital earned in the recent dollar rally will retreat from the market. This will automatically cause increases in the EUR / USD pair and, consequently, in the zloty exchange rate

– comments Zembik. However, it will not be a significant strengthening, the expert expects a return to the level of approx. PLN 4.67-4.68.

I wouldn’t see a major appreciation move so far. Global factors are decisive, including concerns about lockdowns in Europe. Inflationary data or interest rate hikes in Poland and the high probability of continuing the cycle do not strengthen the zloty in any way

– points out Zembik.

Weak zloty means higher inflation

Theoretically, rate hikes should contribute to strengthening of the zloty. The only problem is that other central banks are doing it or are announcing it. The weakness of the zloty is determined by both global factors and, for example, the conflict between the Polish government and the EU (and the “barrier” to the National Reconstruction Plan), the uncertain situation on the eastern border of the country or – in the opinion of some experts – the unpredictability and impaired credibility of the Polish central bank.

Weak zloty is a serious obstacle in the fight against inflation. As Piotr Kalisz, Citibank economist, points out, the strengthening of the zloty is needed to effectively lower inflation.

If the MPC deliberately ‘turns off’ the exchange rate channel, the scale of increases necessary to lower inflation may ultimately be even several percentage points higher

– believes the expert.

Also Dr. Jakub Sawulski, head of the macroeconomics team of the Polish Economic Institute, noted in a recent interview with Gazeta.pl that the weak zloty pushes up inflation. In this context, it should be very important to unblock EU funds for the National Reconstruction Plan as soon as possible.

The Polish economy needs an inflow of euro to strengthen our currency. The conflict with the EU and the risk that the euro will not flow to us are currently weakening the zloty. And this works pro-inflation, because the weaker the zloty, the higher the imported inflation, i.e. higher fuel prices at the stations. For example, oil prices in the world are slowly falling, but we do not see it at the stations because the zloty is weakening.

– explains Dr. Sawulski.

About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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