HRE Investments published on Monday an analysis in which it refers not only to the installment of an average housing loan, because – as Bartosz Turek’s chief analyst explains – hardly anyone has such an average loan. – It is a debt of about 190 thousand. PLN, to which the repayment has been 18 years – he explains.
– So let’s consider one more example. Suppose someone has recently become in debt for 25 years and 300,000. zlotys. In September, such a borrower enjoyed an interest rate of 2.85 percent. Unfortunately, even today in his mailbox he can find a letter informing that the interest rate on his debt has risen to over 5%. The initial installment of such a loan can be estimated at 1.4 thousand. zloty. After taking into account the interest rate increases by the bank, the installment will increase to approx. 1.8 thousand. PLN – adds Bartosz Turek.
He points out that the rising cost of money in Poland at the end of 2021 meant that people with a housing loan in PLN either already have a quarter higher installment or will soon receive information about such an increase. A few quarters ago, such changes were expected in the horizon of 2-3 years. In practice, they happened in just 3 months.
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He reminds that changes in the cost of money started with an increase in the NBP reference rate from 0.1%. in September to 1.75 percent in December. The WIBOR quotations increased even more at that time, which means that banks are already certain of further rate hikes. WIBOR in the popular three-month version (a frequent component of mortgage rates) increased from 0.24%. in September to 2.54 percent at the end of 2021.
– The fact that interest rates will go up again in January is almost certain. It is also almost certain that the upward move will be at least 0.5 points. percent A more solid raise is also possible. Such expectations were triggered by the decision on a very strong increase in the prices of electricity (24%) and gas (54%) used by households. This change clearly influenced the inflation forecasts in Poland, and thus also the forecasts regarding the level of interest rates. This is important because the interest rate on zloty loans depends on the level of interest rates, but also on what deposits banks offer us – claims Turek.
There will be more rate hikes, and creditworthiness will go down
As he adds, the current forecasts suggest that ultimately the base interest rate will go up to around 3.5-4%. As a result, installments of PLN housing loans, as a result of further increases in interest rates, may increase by an additional 10-15 percent. in relation to the current situation. If these forecasts are correct, the only consolation – as he pointed out – will be that most of the changes are behind us, because the installments of zloty loans will be even more than 40 percent. higher than in September 2021.
According to the analyst, creditworthiness decreases with the increase in interest rates. An exemplary family of three, in which both people work and each brings home at the national average, lost around 150,000. golden creditworthiness. In September, she could borrow around 700,000 for the purchase of a flat. zlotys.