Weather: Weekend, between Saturday 20 and Sunday 21 new circulation change; the consequences on Italy
Return of the Azores Anti-cyclone over the weekend of 20-21 August
Let’s get ready for the penultimate weekend of August with good feelings.
The next few days will be dramatically turbulent, but on the weekend the weather should be good and finally with pleasant temperatures everywhere, from North to South.
The Azores Anti-cyclone will return and will bring prevalence of sun with maximums of 32-33 ° C, a few more points only in the extreme South.air will be drywith little humidity and therefore we will experience biometeorological conditions of ‘Wellness’.
There turbulent midweek synoptic situation it will instead be characterized by the passage between 17 and 19 August of the first major Atlantic disturbance after months of drought in the Center-North with violent storms, and by the overwhelming rise of very hot African air towards the South with 40-44 ° C in the shade : therefore extreme situations which will instead leave room for a subsequent pleasant weekend.
To be pickyassuming that the weather models confirm these details of the forecast 4 days away, we try to provide all the data in our possession at the moment:
1) the Anticyclone of the Azores it will ‘spread’ from the West towards Italy with the formation of a small high pressure ‘nose’ north of the Alps;
2) along the Adriatic side there will remain a small baric wound caused by the strong Atlantic disturbance in transit between Wednesday and Friday over our country;
3) at high altitude the circulation of the winds will be mainly from the North-West.
So let’s analyze these 3 points to understand the ‘accessories’ after all, a sunny and pleasant weekend. By accessories we mean what needs to be added to a forecast to make it more accurate, more detailedknowing however that certain ‘accessories’ can be more easily denied by subsequent modeling elaborations.
Point 1: the Anticyclone of the Azores will expand (it will open wide) from the west towards our country, forming a small nose beyond the Alps: it means that we will have a synoptic configuration with a small wedge of the Azorean anticyclone north of the Alps. This could cause some thickening on the border Alps. and light gusts of Foehn in the alpine valleys. The Foehn should not arrive in the Po Valley, but the winds, mostly weak, will still be dry and the air less humid and less sultry.
Point 2: along the Adriatic side there could be a small wound left by the violent midweek Atlantic passage: this means that the pressure will be slightly lower with a slight cyclonic curvature on the eastern Italian sector and this could give rise to some fast downpours on the Apennine hills and in the night between Saturday and Sunday also on the Triveneto: it would still be isolated and short rains, just to be picky.
Step 3: at high altitude the circulation will be from the north-west: this synoptic situation will maintain pleasant temperatures even in the mountains with low humidity and will favor the intensification of the Mistral in the Center-South: we could have tense Mistral winds on our basins and moderate inland Sardinian and Apulian. For the wind forecast we will see better in the coming days, however Aeolus will make the penultimate weekend of August even more ‘nice’ and pleasant, completely sweeping the heat everywhere.
In short, between fussiness and general classification, on 20 and 21 August we will see a new change of circulation: from the obscene midweek synoptic with storms in the Center-North and suffocating heat in the South we will move on to mild north-western currents associated with the Azores Anti-cyclone: welcome calm weather, welcome pleasant weekend even for those who sadly have to return from holidays, at least the weather on our roads will be good.
ECMWF geopotential map 500 hPa, 21/8 hours 12: we note the expansion of the Anticyclone from the Atlantic