(CNN Spanish) — 2024 will be a year filled with elections across five continents. According to the Center for American Progress, more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries around the world will vote, creating a record number of elections. Therefore, these elections will most likely determine the future of the planet and humanity in the next period.
Paradoxically, the results of these elections may indicate a growing threat to the health of democracy rather than its strength.
Taiwan’s presidential election in January could kick off new tensions with China. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a rare third term in the world’s largest democracy. The Russian elections will be just a formality, with Vladimir Putin seeking to retain power until 2030 even as military losses in Ukraine mount. On the other side of the trenches, Volodymyr Zelensky is also likely to gauge his own popularity and the popularity of his military strategy in the polls. Finally, the United States will hold an election in which the controversial Donald Trump – who has so far been barred from running in at least two states’ primaries – will seek electoral revenge after his 2020 defeat.
“The current global context is one of distrust in institutions and misinformation influencing public discourse, coupled with the arrival of new technologies such as regenerative artificial intelligence, which exacerbates existing risks and reduces barriers to contributing to the ecosystem. International Tensions have also been rising, including recent wars and politicians’ preference to pit their own citizens against other countries for political gain, Megan Shahi, director of the Center for American Progress, said in an email. “
Shahi said this year’s global elections will show whether people continue to turn their backs on democratic norms and look for alternatives, “or whether they correct course when they see the dangers of the path we are on.” “There are a lot of risks; most critically, we We are experiencing a global trend of a sharp decline in democracy as the ideal governance structure in people’s minds, coupled with the acceptance of leaders who impose their own agendas rather than serve the collective good,” he explained.
Here’s a look back at elections that could change the course of world politics in the coming years:
Controversial Donald Trump is seeking revenge in America.
The United States will hold a series of elections in 2024: several primaries will be held during part of the year to determine candidates for the two major parties, Republicans and Democrats, and a presidential election in November.
Donald Trump, the most popular Republican candidate in the race, will seek to represent his party while facing multiple legal actions, including two federal indictments. Additionally, he has currently withdrawn from primaries in Maine and Colorado following recent decisions regarding his role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.The Trump campaign appealed the states’ decisions
On the Democratic side, current President Joe Bean has announced that he is seeking re-election and has become the current presidential candidate. However, there are a number of Democrats who could challenge him in the primary, including Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson. But they don’t yet have much support, at least in opinion polls.
No matter what happens, Mexico will have a president
Mexico will elect its first president in June 2024 after Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez emerged as the favourites. While they are not the first women to aspire to serve as president of Mexico (six others have already done so), they are the first to find consensus on the support of the country’s major political parties.
Claudia Sheinbaum will run on behalf of the ruling National Renewal Movement (Morena) and its allies Labor Party (PT) and Green Ecologists of Mexico (PVEM). On the opposition side, Xochitl Galvez will be the candidate of Mexico’s Broad Front, a coalition made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD).
This is an open-ended election where drug trafficking, organized crime and immigration to the United States will dominate the political agenda.
Bukele seeks re-election in El Salvador despite criticism from opposition
El Salvador will go to the polls on February 4, with Nayib Bukele seeking re-election despite opposition doubts, ensuring that at least five articles of the constitution prohibit candidates from running for a second time. Authorization.
The pro-government majority Supreme Court stipulates that in order to prevent a president who chooses to be re-elected from being unable to be re-elected, he must leave office six months before the start of a new term. For this reason, Bukele took leave from November 30 to devote himself to the campaign.
After four years in office, Bukele is seeking re-election with high levels of support, largely around his security policies, according to polls including West German Gallup. However, human rights defenders at home and abroad question their methods because they believe they violate human rights.
Candidates for Venezuela’s ruling party and opposition parties have yet to be determined
Venezuela will also go to the polls in 2024, although the election date and candidates for the ruling and opposition parties are still to be determined.
On the part of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Nicolás Maduro himself, who has been in power for the last ten years since the death of Hugo Chávez, has cast doubt on his candidacy, saying in an interview that it was “not the right time” Too early”. .” Such a definition.
But there is no greater certainty on the part of the opposition. In October 2023, Venezuela’s National Primary Council (CNP) announced María Corina Machado as the winner of the opposition primary for the 2024 elections.
However, steps taken by Venezuela’s Auditor General disqualified Machado because she allegedly failed to include the payment of a food bonus in her sworn asset declaration. Opposition leaders insist the disqualification is illegal.
European Parliament will be the only supranational election
Five years from now, the European Parliament will vote from June 6 to 9, 2024, on a new reorganization that could change the fate of the EU. Experts say the nine countries that will vote for members of the European Parliament this year must expect trends toward political fragmentation and difficulties in building majorities to continue.
As has been the case so far, disillusionment with traditional parties and politics in general can also lead to the emergence or strengthening of fringe parties, many of them hardliners, as is the case with Vox in Spain. Paradoxically, the Eurosceptic position is also likely to be advanced in the next EU Parliament.
Specifically, these elections will be an opportunity for the rise of anti-immigration and far-right populist parties in countries such as France, Germany and Belgium.
Russia and Ukraine, elections on both sides of the trenches
Russia’s war in Ukraine will enter its second anniversary on February 24, and the elections in the two countries will serve as a thermometer for both sides to determine the direction of the conflict in the future.
As far as Russia is concerned, the presidential election is perhaps the closest thing to political drama. Putin has no real rival, as his most prominent rival Alexei Navalny is currently in prison about 65 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, with sympathetic media portraying the sitting president as indispensable to Russia. . But this spring’s vote will be an important public ceremony for the Kremlin leader who is seeking to secure power by the end of the decade.
Although Ukraine plans to hold presidential elections in 2024, questions remain about the significance of holding them amid a conflict that is entering its third year.
Regardless, President Zelensky will face shortages of ammunition and equipment as he tries to cope with the difficulties of a world that has added new conflicts — between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East — and between nations. differences among its Western allies, mainly the United States and Europe.
Elections in the world’s largest democracy: India
India will hold the most important elections in the world from a demographic perspective in April and May.
Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are expected to win a third term with popular but religiously divisive politics. Despite problems related to inflation and purchasing power, Modi enjoys broad support among India’s Hindu majority for a foreign policy based on patriotism and assertiveness. Critics responded that the once secular and democratic spirit of India’s founding was taking a back seat and minorities felt insecure.
Taiwan Elections and Strait Conflict
The 2024 electoral agenda will kick off with a tense election, when Taiwan goes to the polls to set the tone for relations with China over the next four years. If the winner is Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, a previously strong supporter of Taiwan independence, relations with Beijing are expected to deteriorate or remain frozen. Rival candidates from the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party have pledged to reduce friction with China, although all three parties oppose Beijing’s “one country, two systems” principle.
Reporting by CNN’s Bianca Nobilo, Stephen Collinson, Nathan Hodge, Ivonne Valdés, Merlin Delcid and Krupskaia Alís