A Russian nuclear train left in the direction ofUkraine? Vladimir Putin is organizing a atomic test at the border? To speak of a convoy managed by secret nuclear division from Fly moving towards Kiev it was the Times yesterday. The British newspaper cited the Polish expert’s analysis Konrad Muzyka. According to which the train is responsible for nuclear ammunition, their storage, transport and delivery to the units. All this should be linked to a series of information received from NATO countries on a test with tactical nuclear weapons that Tsar would have in preparation. But, as we shall see, the issue appears to be more complex. And that of Russia seems more to be a signal to the West than a sign of the will to strike soon.
A signal to the West
The presence of the Russian atomic train and his movements do not necessarily indicate a nuclear test arriving. The load of the train is represented by means of the 12th Directorate, which takes care of the custody of nuclear warheads. You can see it from the load: there are, for example, armored cars Kamaz 43269 “Vystrel”with turret and cannon of 30 millimeters. In addition, the video showing the nuclear train was geolocated at Sergiyev PosadNorth of Fly. On the railway line that also leads to the Vologda 20, the central warehouse for plutonium bombs. But in October in Russia, as the Polish analyst himself recalls, the exercises are held Grom. “Does the video show preparations for a nuclear strike? – He says Muzika -. Not really. There are other more likely explanations. It could be a form of signaling to the West that Moscow is raising the bar. Or Russia could lead the usual autumn exercise of strategic deterrence in October. So this train could show preparation for this exercise. ”
The Bulgarian expert Boyko Nikolov instead he provided another explanation. Which starts from one of the photos of the train posted on Telegram. Which show, according to the expert, a vehicle KAMAZ BPM-97 4 × 4 in a more modern version than that of The nineties. Is called Vystrel-M and the reason for the displacements is precisely its use in the war in Ukraine. The expert also claims that some of these vehicles have already been seen on the streets of Cherson. While other versions are in action in Azerbaijan, Syria And Kazakhstan. But in the meantime, according to another video shown two days ago, 17 Iskander missiles are on their way to the border. In recent days there was also talk of the submarine K-329 Belgorod. Which is carrying out tests with Poseidon missiles, according to a NATO report. That is to say a nuclear warhead which can travel for ten thousand kilometers. And it explodes in the vicinity of the coast causing one radioactive tsunami. The same effect as the ICBMs already used in Russian exercises.
Putin’s atomic test
On 3 October the submarine left its position and “disappeared”. But the White House spokesperson last night Karine Jean-Pierre in a press briefing he said that there are no indications that Russia is going to use nuclear weapons: “We take any nuclear threat very seriously. At the moment we have no indication that Russia is preparing immediately to use that type of weapon ». That is, those tactics and strategies that Moscow possesses. But for a long time the Pentagoni American nuclear laboratories And intelligence agencies they are doing computer simulations of what might happen. And about how the United States they might respond. The New York Times explained in recent days that having the simulation of an atomic test is not easy.
Because tactical bombs have different sizes. Although they mostly have a small fraction of the destructive power of those released by the US on Hiroshima And Nagasaki in the [1945. And they are more sophisticated than those that entered the collective imagination with films about 007. And so the strategic scenarios they vary according to the choice of Moscow. Russia could shoot a bomb 15 cm wide with an artillery cannon on Ukrainian soil. OR a half-ton nuclear warhead with a missile launched from the Russian borders. The targets could be a more less remote military base or a small Ukrainian town, but a demonstration explosion above the Black Sea. The ideal targets identified by NATO in recent days are the Isle of Snakes And Odessa.
What happens if the Tsar throws the bomb
In its arsenal, Moscow has approx 2,000 tactical nuclear bombs. The most feared is the atomic warhead mounted on the missiles Iskander. Which they can achieve too Western European cities. In this case, the American response is from Born would be to attack the base that launched the missile or unit. Or target Russian forces in Ukraine and in Crimea. In addition to the fleet on the Black Sea. But there is also a plan for the escalation. Which would also constitute a tipping point for Russia. Which would lose the scarce international support it still has. And it could also end up hurting itself. Given that there is no certainty that a radioactive cloud generated by the use of an atomic weapon does not also affect Russian territory or the Belarus. “It would be a huge risk for limited benefits that would not achieve Putin’s declared goal, at most the use of Russian nuclear would freeze the front lines in current positions and would allow the Kremlin to preserve the occupied territories”, he warns the Institute for the Study of War.
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