The European elections of 2024 are causing a lot of ink and saliva to flow among the four “allies” of Nupes who, today, are more in disunity than in union
A headline (“La Nupes plays its survival”) and an XXL photo of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, all across the width of the page: would we be dealing with a front page of the World or of Release ? Not at all, it’s just a front page Telegram (Wednesday August 23, 2023). In addition to the fact that it is rare to see a regional daily launch with such force into a subject of national politics, it is equally certain that it is not with this type of material that sales are encouraged. Nothing replaces “good” news items on the front page to develop distribution. But “provincial” journalists like to indulge themselves with subjects that do not correspond to the centers of interest of their readers.
On page 3, we are therefore entitled to an “analysis” of the situation among the four “allies” of Nupes. Nothing that makes you salivate, nothing hard-hitting, the reader must be satisfied with a few platitudes. We learn all the same that at the LFI summer school, a conference entitled “A new breath for Nupes! ” is planned. Extensive program! If, today, communists, ecologists and more and more socialists spit in the soup of the Nupes, this was not always the case. This invention of Jean-Luc Mélenchon allowed the four “allies” to obtain good results in the legislative elections of June 2022. First for the communists, the socialists and the ecologists who were able to form a group in the National Assembly with, respectively, 22 deputies, 31 deputies and 22 deputies. But especially for the rebellious: 75 deputies. In Brittany, the socialists therefore recover three elected officials at the Palais-Bourbon: Mélanie Thomin (Carhaix), Claudia Rouaux (Rennes-Montfort-sur-Meu) and Mikaël Bouloux (Rennes-Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande). The two ecologists: Julie Laernoes (Nantes-Rezé) and Jean-Claude Raux (Châteaubriant). And the rebellious six: Murielle Lepvraud (Guingamp), Frédéric Mathieu (Rennes-Bruz), Mathilde Hignet (Redon), Andy Kerbrat (Nantes center), Ségolène Amiot (Nantes-Saint-Herblain) and Matthias Tavel (Saint-Nazaire).
What is possible in legislative elections thanks to article L. 123 of the electoral code (“The deputies are elected by a majority uninominal ballot in two rounds”) and article L. 124 (“The vote takes place by constituency” ) is not in the European elections. Indeed, article 3 of the law of July 7, 1977 stipulates that “The election takes place by list ballot with proportional representation, without mixing and preferential voting. The seats are distributed among the lists having obtained at least 5% of the votes cast by proportional representation according to the rule of the highest average. As for article 4, it indicates that “The Republic forms a single constituency”. Consequently, if the union seems to constitute the good formula for the legislative elections, the every man for himself is essential in the European elections; especially since communists, ecologists and socialists, all ungrateful, do not want to give gifts to LFI. This is how the situation looks for “the election of representatives to the European Parliament” which will take place on Sunday, June 9, 2024; 79 citizens of the French Republic will therefore sit in Strasbourg and Brussels.
Of course, polls on voting intentions play a big role in people’s attitudes. A year before the election, the institutes are already at work… Two main hypotheses present themselves, either four lists from the Nupes, or a single list from the Nupes. In the first case, the National Rally comes first (24%), followed by Renaissance (21%) and Les Républicains (9%). But it is on the left that the surprise appears: Europe Ecologie-Les Verts and the Socialist Party are leading the race with for each list 10% of the voting intentions, while La France insoumise must be content with a modest 8 , % and the PCF by a small 4%. These four lists therefore obtain a total of 32.5%. In the second case, we note that the atmosphere is not good on the left since the united lise Nupes would obtain only 24% of the voting intentions – obviously green and socialist voters refuse to vote for what seems to them an emanation of Melenchon. The RN is maintained (25%), like The Republicans (10%). But a small increase in Renaissance (24%) – voters who claim to be social democrats prefer Macron to Mélenchon. (Ipsos surveyThe worldSunday 2-Monday 3 July 2023).
“Unity is a fight”said Georges Marchais (PCF)
In a column published in The Sunday newspaper (October 23, 2022), Johanna Rolland (PS), mayor of Nantes, Nathalie Appéré (PS), mayor of Rennes, and Isabelle Assih (PS), mayor of Quimper, had called for the constitution of a union list between socialists and ecologists in the European elections. After supporting “the Nupes electoral agreement” in the legislative elections, “while clearly accepting a certain number of disagreements, particularly on Europe, it is important to restart the compass and redefine our values”, indicates the tribune. . “We must respond with left-wing, ecological, social justice and protection measures, all the more necessary when the risk of downgrading and precariousness is so great for many of our fellow citizens (…) Ecology will be social or will not be. “.
The ambition of a single list carried by Jean-Luc Mélenchon therefore looks bad. Especially since the European question strongly divides rebellious and socialists. “About a single list of the left, Christophe Clergeau, national secretary for Europe, perceives at LFI “fairly negative signals on the bottom” demonstrating that Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement has not amended its political line, contrary to what it claims. “But we have important proximities with the Greens”, takes care to add this close friend of Olivier Faure. » (The world, Sunday 2-Monday 3 July 2023). Some therefore defend a third hypothesis: a united EELV-PS list, that is to say ecologists and socialists in the same boat, exit the others. Result: 15% for the alliance in question, 9.5% for the list of La France insoumise and 5% for that of the PCF. Nothing has changed for the RN (25%), for LR (9%) and for Renaissance (23%). But, for the moment, the leaders of EE-LV do not want to hear about this solution (Ipsos survey, The world, Sunday 2-Monday 3 July 2023). As for Olivier Faure, Friday afternoon, “Faced with a few elected officials, he clearly hinted that there will indeed be an autonomous list of the PS in the June 2024 ballot. “We are not going to form an alliance with LFI on this European issue which divides us the most”, he said. The decision will, however, not be taken until September. » (West FranceAugust 26-27, 2023)
All this does not help the affairs of Mélenchon and his friends. Hence the dissatisfaction of Mathilde Panot, president of the LFI group in the National Assembly: “There is a kind of double talk, with partners who speak to us of unity but create disunity. We remain convinced that having a single list in the European elections is the shortest way to beat Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in 2027. All the polls tell us that she would be victorious” (West France, Tuesday, August 23, 2023). Certainly, Panot has an erroneous reading of the polls; you have to buy him a pair of good quality glasses. Note that an Ifop Fiducial survey gave the same results in May (The Sunday newspaperMay 14, 2023).
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