“This is probably the scariest election I’ve ever experienced in my lifetime,” he told the outlet a few days ago. Associated Press Andrew Collins, 35, from Windham (Maine), registered as an independent voter in the presidential campaign that began between Presidents Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, This will continue until a vote is taken November 5th.
“I think these are our best options, and it’s sad for our country,” said Randy Johnson, a 64-year-old Republican from Missouri. “We have to choose the lesser of two evils.”
(Also read: Donald Trump: Appeals court judge skeptical of immunity request).
An Associated Press/Center for Public Affairs Research poll found 56% of voters dissatisfied with Biden seeking re-election, 58% are happy to see former President Trump become the Republican nominee. Neither of them had majority approval.Biden starts the new year only 42% of people agreewhile Trump increased even less: 36%.
Court ruling could have decisive impact on presidential election in ways we’ve never seen
Although Americans have less positive reviews overall, Trump has a slight advantage over Biden in voting intentions. According to an average of polls updated daily by the Real Clear Politics portal, the former president has an approval rating of 46.5% and the current president has an approval rating of 44.3%.
Trump leads in five of six key states whose Electoral College delegates are decisive in designating a winner, but remember, the country elects its president not by direct vote but by delegates of each state is elected by popular vote.
Each of the 50 states has a certain number of representatives, and in principle the vast majority of states have all of their representatives Electra AcademyThey must vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state.
According to a Siena College poll, Trump will win relatively easily today in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Therefore, Trump will retain all the electoral votes in these areas, while Biden will win only in Wisconsin, and by a very small margin (47% to 45%).
Everyone has disputes
The biggest issue is Joe Biden’s relationship with young people, who enjoyed broad support in 2020 and then gained a 20-point advantage over Trump among 18- to 29-year-old voters. That age group now appears to be leaning toward Trump, according to the Siena College survey.
Many young Democrats and independents who supported Biden have deserted him, some because they think he’s too old (he’s 81), some because they think he’s too centrist and want him to be further to the left, and some because Some stem from their rejection of White House support for Israel in Tel Aviv’s military’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
But Trump doesn’t have it easy either, although his troubles are more with the law than voters. The former president is facing 91 criminal charges in six proceedings, ranging from sexual abuse and fraud aimed at overturning the 2020 election he lost to Biden, including his role in the violent attack on the Capitol three years ago. Thug support. Year.
Colorado and Maine blocked Trump’s name from being registered in the Republican primary because the 14th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits those associated with acts of insurrection from being appointed or elected to public office. Several prosecutors, judges and magistrates used the word “insurrection” to describe the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by Trump faction with the support of the then-President.
Trump’s fate lies in the hands of the Supreme Court. At least three cases have been submitted to the highest judicial authority USA. The first has to do with the immunity Trump claims to have because he was still occupying the White House when the Capitol attack occurred and he has avoided prosecuting it, based on his lawyers’ arguments that Congress should prosecute him over the incident.
Two other decisions related to the rejection of his primary candidacy in Colorado and Maine. Trump’s lawyers appealed the Colorado Supreme Court ruling and a ruling passed in the same sense by Maine Secretary of State Shena Bellows. With similar lawsuits filed in more than a dozen other states, it’s likely those cases will also make their way to the Supreme Court.
The argument for denying Trump’s registration is based on the aforementioned constitutional rules, which were devised in the years following the Civil War that took place between 1861 and 1865.Under this rule, the victors of the Union (from northern states) sought to ensure that the losers of the Confederacy (from southern states) could not obtain public office through appointment or election because these leaders had participated in the Southern Rebellion against President Abraham Lincoln’s administration. This resulted in civil war.
The Supreme Court has a majority of six conservative justices against three progressive justices. Three of these six conservatives were nominated by Trump when he was president. With that in mind, many analysts are betting the Supreme Court will rule in Trump’s favor.
But there are other considerations. After several scandals involving some justices, the Supreme Court has faced rulings that have accepted favors and gifts from private businessmen, some of whom are close to Trump, and broad sector rejections, such as one that enabled state courts to ban abortion. Credibility crisis.
After decades of gaining the trust of most Americans, that metric has declined. A Gallup poll that measures the trustworthiness of public institutions every summer shows that in 2002, respondents’ trust in the Supreme Court was 50%. By 2020, that number had dropped to 40%. Between 2021 and 2023, the collapse continues: from 36% to 27%.
This is why some argue that despite the conservative majority, there is no definition. “The court’s ruling could have a decisive impact on the presidential election in ways we have never seen before,” Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Berkeley School of Law, told Politico.com.
“And – the dean added – they also affect people’s perceptions of the court.” Everything will begin to become clear after February 8, when both sides will make their case before the nine justices of the Supreme Court in Washington, D.C. Their final argument. By then, the Iowa primary will be Accidents will occur in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, but 46 states will be missing.
Although the campaign to attack each other and disqualify individuals on social networks began with unusual intensity, the tone of the speeches already suggested that if there is no change in the votes of the two major parties, the election year will be full of aggression.
“Whether democracy remains America’s sacred cause is the most pressing question of our time and the challenge of the 2024 election,” Biden said Friday in his first campaign speech in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. “Trump is trying to rewrite the events of January 6th (2021) just like he tried to steal the election, trying to steal history,” the president said.
“But we know the truth because we saw it with our own eyes on television,” he added before concluding: “Trump’s riots were not peaceful demonstrations, they were violent attackers, they were insurrectionists, not patriots, They are not here to enforce the Constitution, but to destroy it.”
Trump went further: “We are a failing country…, a banana republic for corrupt Joe Biden,” he said a few weeks ago at an event in Kissimmee, Florida, south of Orlando. . He has since repeated the concepts of “banana republics” and “corrupt Biden” dozens of times.
In addition to attacking Trump for supporting the Capitol attackers, Biden will have to work hard to convince voters that his administration’s economic results are anything but bad, as evidenced by the fact that he has kept the unemployment rate below 4% since 2021. In December, the economy created 200,000 new jobs.
A similar situation occurs with insecure characters. According to data from AH Datalytics, homicides fell 13% in 2023, one of the largest declines this century. It will not be easy for Biden to locate these achievements because the effectiveness of the Trump faction in dealing with fake news is well known and they will try to deny it.
Even so, polls show Biden’s support improving slightly over the course of December: Trump’s support rose by as much as 6 points at the start of the month, and the gap has now narrowed to within the range of a technical tie. .
The campaign has just begun, and it’s not even clear whether Biden or Trump will be the nominees. In addition to the legal jeopardy of the former president’s wishes, Biden himself recently said he was running because Trump was running, suggesting he would be out of office if Trump didn’t run. With ten months to go until the polls, even this is not clearly defined, the only thing that is clear is that as long as they are the candidate, the campaign will be a fight to the death.
Mauricio Vargas Linares