Burst of rejections on the future prospects of the Italian system in the new report cards communicated yesterday by Moody ‘s. The rating agency essentially confirmed the opinions on Italian companies. Worsening the outlook, however. The prospects, in fact. The American agency has aligned the judgment on our corporate bonds to those of Italy’s sovereign debt. Move explained with the advance of the political elections to 25 September, after the crisis of the Draghi government which led to the dissolution of the Chambers. A judgment that the Italian Treasury did not share, motivating the dissent publicly.
This is not a downgrade. The actual rating of the companies and the BTPs remains the same as before. In essence, the prospects have been revised from “stable” to “negative” – and frankly it is no small feat – for fourteen banks, nine utilities and a good number of various companies. The link with the fall of the Draghi government has been discounted. The same people who predicted peak stock exchanges and spreads at 400, will use the barrage of negative judgments on the future of the Italian system to demonstrate the inevitability of the “government of the best”. After-Draghi bitter for businesses: this could be the title of one of the many pieces in the Draghian newspapers. It is a pity (for them) that yesterday the differential between our 10-year BTPs and the German Bund has closed at 213 basis points. It was at 247 on July 21. Before the government crisis. Moody’s operation concerns practically all the big tricolor groups. And it traces the map of the entities that issue debt securities. The bonds. The prospects of fourteen financial institutions were reviewed from “stable” to “negative”: Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Bper Banca, Banca Carige, Mediocredito Trentino-Alto Adige, Fca Bank, Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mcc, Cassa Centrale Banca, Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Invitalia, Crédit Agricole Italia, Credito Emiliano and Mediobanca. The opinion on Montepaschi di Siena, Banco Bpm, Banca Sella Holding, Beff Bank and Banca Ifis remained unchanged.
ENERGY AND POST
The Italian Post Office was also involved in the review. Rating confirmed, revised worsening prospects. From stable to negative. Same fate for Eni and nine utilities. For the six-legged dog, the assessment of creditworthiness and the rating remained unchanged at Baa1, two notches above Italy’s sovereign rating, while the Baa2 rating was confirmed for the nine utilities. These are Acea, Hera, Italgas, Snam, Terna, Cdp Reti, 2i Rete Gas, A2a and Enel, to which is added Endesa Italia, whose rating is Baa1. Energy skyrocketing and utilities failing. The situation is different in the insurance sector where Moody ‘s confirmed the opinion of the A3 insurance financial solidity with a stable outlook of Generali and its Italian, French and German subsidiaries. While he confirmed the opinion for UnipolSai, whose outlook, however, changed from stable to negative. A difference – explains the rating agency – which “reflects the concentration of its activities”. Finally, as regards Allianz, A3 confirmed and positive outlook. In practice, the only big Italian company to save itself from this barrage of pejorative revisions is Generali. According to Moody ‘s, the judgment on the Lion of Trieste reflects the strong geographical diversification of the group and the continuous improvement of its financial profile. The rating agency also stated that Generali’s rating is positioned above Italy’s sovereign rating, thanks to the company’s ability to react to a possible crisis scenario.