World Cup 2022, an algorithm has already predicted (almost) everything: the winner will be…

From the mythical octopus Paul who in 2010 amazed the world by guessing 100% of the results of the South African World Cup, al camel Camillatested on Qatar 2022, the art of prediction continues to follow the mysterious ways of the ability to win bets. Between the highly intelligent cephalopod and the cute quadruped of the desert, there have been many attempts at imitation with animals theoretically capable of predictions, which have instead turned out to be sensational flops, such as the cat Achille, the ferret Kenny, the pandas Suhail and Thuraya and even the falcon. . Today, however, it is the old and dear calculation of probabilities that is back in fashion and to stand as a “revealer”.

Nielsen Holdings plc’s algorithm is (almost) foolproof

The new “prophet” is an algorithm developed by Nielsen Holdings plc, an American data and event measurement company. Nielsen’s calculations proved to be practically infallible in predicting the teams qualified for the quarter-finals: the only exception being Spain And Belgium, moreover in the only two matches ended on penalties and therefore with a higher fallibility index. Now, the new calculations for the continuation of the tournament are clear, but not too much: the only team accredited to go through with over 70% probability is the Brazilwhile the successes of Argentina over Holland, of France over England and of Portugal about Morocco. According to the algorithm, the Lusitanians would be the favorites to challenge the Seleçao in the final on 18 December in Doha, with Neymar and cowho should graduate World champions.