A scholarship week can be worth a whole year of waiting

The financial markets are the realm of surprises and if someone dares to have convictions, the time necessary to stick them in his head and already has to work with pincers to get the nail off. Last Thursday’s US inflation data blew Wall Street stock indices and the world is back exactly where it was before.

Past the fear? I don’t know but let’s say that on the stock exchange you have to have an opinion and keep that opinion even when you want to change it because otherwise you risk making slaughterhouses. On this sheet we have always written that well before reaching the bottom of the slipping of the Bags the markets would settle at this level and we kept this view for all the long preceding months by compressing the pains that came from the stomach.

And not because we were good, but because we were convinced that changing opinion would do more harm than keeping it.

A reader of mine accused me of being too often bullish on the stock markets: true, but this is simply due to the fact that the more the stock markets go up than down and I bovinely want to be on the right side of the market.

I repeat, there is not much skill in all this but a lot of craft.

To tell the truth, we were amazed that the data of theinflation US CPI were so mild as the graph below demonstrates and which actually tells us that the interest rate rise has the expiry label written above: in the histogram chart below we note how the last red data of the CPI inflation is in line with pre-covid 2019 inflation and thus the world appears to be back where it always was.

Graph 1

We who belong to the party of value for money we had already noticed that instead of eating out it was better to get in the kitchen and the graph below relating to the USA (but also transportable in the country of pizza like ours where for a four-season pizza, a quartino of wine and a lemon sorbet I 20 eurini were asked, so much so that I decided that they would eat the pizza because with 20 euros I would buy more than 1 kg of horse tartare already seasoned).

Graph 2

Gabriele Turissiniprince of Italian financial promoters and a very lucid mind of the quantitative ranking of funds, illustrates in this video a down to earth example of how psychology has brutally conditioned the prices of pellets beyond any logic of value for money.

In US inflation, the component relating to property prices is still the master and therefore it is easy to predict that there will be a good crisis in the US brick: the following graph shows how the increases in property prices have far exceeded the increase in employee remuneration.

Graph 3

And between one crisis and the next, the imponderable happened: in a week the Italian stock exchange gained 5% with a handful of stocks that split. The thing that pisses me off because as an investor it steals my heart and soul (and sometimes even my wallet) is that in this trade it only takes a week to change the returns of an entire year. Anyone who knows what shooting means knows well what I mean when I compare the Stock Exchange to shooting: think of the sniper or the hunter who is stationed motionless behind a wall day after day with his eyes on the target. You never know when the enemy or the prey will arrive – you have to watch and be patient. Then when the prey hangs up it’s a moment and you have to pull the trigger and although you’ve been in the post for days you never feel prepared.

And this week we bought 2 shares that each gave us at least + 10%:

But if a retracement of our price list and of foreign stock exchanges is now expected by everyone including myself, there are dozens of shares that call for a buy: among these we point out Azimut, Anima, Reply, Brembo, Piaggio and many others.

Graph 4
Graph 5

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About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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