There is an automatism that guides the orientation of the left and the media in that area after each electoral defeat: from the next day they look for the weak link to blow the balance of the new government. In previous experiences they have always used the ambition of one of the leaders of the center-right coalition. They did it with Lamberto Dini, with Pier Ferdinando Casini and with Gianfranco Fini. On this occasion, in the absence of anything better, they attempt a reverse operation, that is to put the premier “in pectore” Giorgia Meloni against his allies, especially against Matteo Salvini.
To do this, they use all means: they bring up the bone of contention, that is, Salvini’s aspirations for the Interior Ministry; or, they multiply the number of “technical” ministers to fear a reduction in the weight of the allies in the government. Indeed, after 25 years they return to flatter Umberto Bossi in the old role – to quote a vintage D’Alema – of “rib of the left”. At the time the Senatùr served this purpose to send the first Berlusconi government into crisis, now it can be useful to marginalize Salvini and make him lose his nerves. After all, Machiavelli’s phrase “the end justifies the means” has always inspired the action of those worlds: the end remains the conquest of power, the means and alliances change according to the moment. Of course, since the game is as old as the cuckoo, it is subject to a fatal decline. More or less like ideology: we have passed from socialism “only of the future” to the big face of Giuseppe Conte. The coveted ally, in fact, to return to power.
A decline that the left also pays for in its ability to divide the center-right. Also because the more disoriented you are, the more you trade fireflies for lanterns, especially if you are used to looking at reality through the lens of ideology: at least you have a distorted version of it. And if you have suffered a defeat so bitter that you are shocked to the point of wanting to change your name, the confusion is total and you pay a deficit of analysis, that is, you risk not understanding the nature and the balance at the base of the government that is about to be born.
Now, to return to reality, the events inside the Caroccio have their dynamics, the future will tell us which ones. On the internal balance of the government, on the other hand, the parliamentary groups count and those of the Lega and Forza Italia have been forged (at the cost of losing some consensus) in the logic of compactness and loyalty to the leaders. Neither Salvini nor Berlusconi, in fact, wanted to repeat the experience of the Draghi government, that is, to have delegations of ministers who pursue a line different from that of the parent company. This is why it is difficult to imagine the marginalization of one of the leaders of the coalition, starting with Salvini: simul stabunt, simul cadent. This is reality. And the first to be aware of it is Meloni who, since she began to study as prime minister, she moves, as is the nature of the role, with caution. Then of course there is the internal dialectic: Salvini can claim the Interior Ministry and then, faced with a no, aim to have a compensation in the internal balance of the government. But that’s in the things. Imagining, instead, his isolation as a picklock to blow up the government is only the illusion of a left that hopes to have an unlikely revenge in the short term.