Fitch Agency has raised its growth forecast Polish GDP in 2021 to 6.4 percent from 5.7 percent previously expected – the report shows Fitch Global Economic Outlook – December 2021 from December 7. At the same time, the Agency lowered the growth forecast for 2022 from 4.5 percent. at 4.3 percent
“Higher than expected GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 and data revisions mean that Polish economy is currently about 3.5 percent. above pre-pandemic levels. Quarterly increase by 2.1% was higher than the growth forecast in the September Global Economic Outlook by 1.3%. kdk. At the same time, the revised readings for Q1 and Q2 added 0.6 percentage points. to this year’s growth GDP. Therefore, we expect Poland’s GDP to increase by 6.4 percent. instead of 5.7 percent. At the same time, aggressive monetary policy tightening should reduce the economic growth rate in 2022 to 4.3%. (instead of 4.5% forecasted earlier). In 2023, we expect economic growth of 3.5%. (compared to 3.8% earlier) “, wrote the Fitch Global Economic Outlook report – December 2021.
The authors of the report expect that in the first months of 2022 inflation in Poland will peak at 8 percent.
“Along with the quick closing of the gap GDPwhich should reach a positive level in 2022, there is increasing inflationary pressure. CPI in October it rose to 6.8%, raising our inflation forecast for the end of 2021 to 7.8%. (from 4.8% forecasted earlier). We expect inflation to peak at 8%. in early 2022 and will moderate for the rest of the year, but will remain above the inflation target NBP“- it was written.
The report shows that Fitch economists expect CPI inflation at the end of 2022 to be 4.0 percent.