For now, the “third pole” seems to favor the right

Some polls and analyzes released in recent days seem to suggest that Action’s exit from the center-left and the creation of a so-called “third pole” in the center may have increased the advantage of the right-wing coalition, which has already been well ahead in the polls for months.

The declared goal of the leader of Action, Carlo Calenda, is to “not let the right win”: he repeated this again on Tuesday in an interview with the Press. Yet at the moment – when there is still a month and a half of electoral campaign left before the elections – it seems that his political operation is having the opposite effect.

On Tuesday afternoon, the first survey carried out after the exit of Action from the center-left was released, carried out by the YouTrend / Quorum institute for Sky Tg24. The poll shows quite clearly that at the moment the right-wing coalition has not been affected at all by the imminent birth of the “third pole”, and remains at around 49 percent of the vote.

The center-left, which in various surveys in recent weeks was given around 30 per cent, on the other hand fell to 27.4 per cent.

Something could change during the electoral campaign. Calenda and Matteo Renzi, leader of Italia Viva, have said several times that they intend to seek votes especially in the moderate electorate that in recent years had voted for Forza Italia, now that Silvio Berlusconi’s party seems increasingly subordinate to Lega and Fratelli d ‘ Italy. Political reporters are convinced that in the coming weeks among the most visible people of the new “third pole”, if it materializes, there will be Mara Carfagna and Mariastella Gelmini, outgoing ministers of Mario Draghi’s government but above all former leaders of the moderate wing of Forza Italy.

On Tomorrow, the journalist Giulia Merlo writes that Action in particular could represent “a danger for the center-right in a proportional key, because it can erode the electoral basin of Forza Italia and in particular drain votes from the north”. Even if this operation succeeds, however, “in the part of the single-member constituencies the penalization concerns the center-left more”.

In the 221 single-member constituencies provided for by the “Rosatellum”, in which the candidate who gets even one vote more than the opponents wins, Action or a possible “third pole” would draw voters especially in the electoral basin in which the center-left is stronger , that is, in the cities of the North (where Action has proven to be able to obtain good results, in the last administrative elections) and in Tuscany, the region where Italia Viva is most rooted due to Renzi’s twenty-year political career.

According to an estimate by the respected Cattaneo Institute, at the moment the center-left could win in about thirty single-member constituencies out of 221. Compared to the previous analysis, in which Action was counted in the center-left, the right-wing coalition “would win 19 more single-member constituencies in the Chamber and 9 more seats in the Senate, reaching 61 per cent of the total seats in the first case and 64 per cent in the second, ”writes the Cattaneo Institute. In short, the right would be very close to controlling two-thirds of the parliament, which would allow it to change the Constitution without the need to hold a referendum.

The projection of the Cattaneo Institute on the result in the single-member colleges of the Chamber (Cattaneo Institute)

The scenario of a victory of the right in the overwhelming majority of single-member constituencies is reinforced by the fact that the “Rosatellum” does not provide for mechanisms of “desistance”, ie agreements between different but similar political forces to avoid stealing each other’s votes.

The “Rosatellum” provides that in the constituencies in which a party presents candidates for the multi-member list, with which two thirds of the seats are elected at the national level, it must also present a candidate in the single-member list. In short: Action or the coalition of the center will not be able to refuse to present a candidate in a single-member constituency where the center-left is competitive, unless they renounce to present themselves in the entire constituency.

In theory, the center-left and the “third pole” could agree to make an informal desistance and present deliberately weak candidates in some colleges: but at the moment the personal relationships between the leaders are so deteriorated that it is difficult to think that one can find a solution by 22 August, the last day to present the lists of their candidates.

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About Banner Leon

Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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